Bolivar, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

949
FXUS64 KJAN 180713
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
213 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Today and Tonight...
Early morning HREF guidance is showing very low probabilities
(around 10-20%) of patchy fog development across our area through
this morning. Fog graphics will not be introduced at this time given
the low probability of fog development highlighted by HREF guidance.
With that in mind, shallow patchy fog will be possible particularly
after dawn.
CAM guidance from early this morning is starting to show scattered
showers and t-storm development across our area this afternoon. For
this reason, went ahead and bumped up PoP chances across our
forecast area for later today. Similar to yesterday, a few strong
storms up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Afternoon highs will peak
into the low to mid 90s areawide. Rain chances will begin to
diminish later this evening as weak surface ridging continues over
the southeast CONUS. Quiet weather conditions will prevail across
our CWA heading into the overnight period with nighttime
temperatures dipping into the upper 60s/lower 70s. /CR/
Friday through Thursday...
Friday morning will start off relatively quiet with a slight chance
of an isolated shower/t-storm mainly across portions of southeast
AR. Heading into Friday afternoon, PWATs will climb to around 1.5
inches. This combined with northerly moist boundary layer advection
could allow for a slight chance of late afternoon/early evening
scattered showers and storms over a good portion of our CWA. Because
of this, went ahead and made a few adjustments regarding the
convective coverage for our area tomorrow, as guidance suggest
slightly higher rain chances Friday afternoon. The weekend will be
mainly quiet with a few pop-up showers possible along northwestern
portions of our area.
Rain chances will begin to pickup starting next week to about 20-40%
across all zones, due to a shift in the overall upper air pattern
bringing a broad trough and northwest flow over AR/LA/MS. Expect
diurnally driven convection for the afternoon through early next
week which could have severe characteristics, so it is advised to
stay apprised of all current updates regarding next week`s weather
pattern. Rain chance should continue heading into the late week.
/CR/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Isolated SHRA or TSRA are possible after 18Z, but
confidence in impacts from thunder was too low to mention in TAFs
at this time. /NF/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  69  93  69 /  20  20  20   0
Meridian      94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20   0
Vicksburg     93  68  93  68 /  20  20  20   0
Hattiesburg   94  68  95  68 /  20  20  20   0
Natchez       92  68  93  68 /  20  20  20   0
Greenville    95  69  93  67 /  20  20  20   0
Greenwood     95  70  95  67 /  20  20  20   0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
CR/NF

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion