Bonita Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

202
FXUS65 KTWC 102200
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Tropical moisture has settled into southeast Arizona
and this will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms today,
especially west of Tucson. Shower and thunderstorm chances become
more widespread this weekend, with a threat for areas of heavy
rain. The heavy rain threat will continue into Monday, especially
south and east of Tucson with rain chances gradually diminishing
by the middle of next week area-wide. Temperatures transition from
above normal today to below normal by Sunday through much of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Warm and breezy day across SE AZ with a few light
showers/storms possible this evening into the overnight hours.
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon showed TS Priscilla low
level circulation near the Baja Spur while the middle and upper
level clouds have broken off and are moving to the NE. Further
S-SE was TS Raymond, around 340 miles SE of Baja Tip.
Not a whole lot of change in the potential for a long duration
rain event this weekend into Monday with anomalously high PWAT
values of 250% to 300% across the area. There still is quite a
bit of uncertainty on precipitation amounts as ensembles still
showing large spreads. As I said in yesterdays discussion, you
can`t get too focused on QPF from one model run with many many
solutions in the ensemble world.
As of this afternoon, here are some precipitation total low end
and high end scenarios for the Saturday thru Monday time period
along with the current forecast.
Low end scenario (25th percentile) has trended up a bit 0.30" to
  0.80" with higher totals of 1" to 1.5" along Intl border.
High end scenario (75th percentile) has widespread 3 to 5 inches
  with localized amounts near 6" along the Intl border.
Current forecast widespread 1 to 3 inches with localized higher
  amounts to 4" along the Intl border and in the mountains
With all that said a Flood Watch was issued earlier today for
Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. See hydrology
section for hydro concerns.
Chance of showers remain Tuesday before the areas drys out
Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures near normal Saturday and then below normal levels
Sunday through most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 7K-10K ft AGL and SCT-BKN clouds at 11K-14K ft
AGL thru the forecast period, along with ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA. SFC
wind ELY/SELY at 8-14 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 4-7 degrees above
normal today, falling to near normal Saturday, then 3-9 degrees
below normal Saturday through most of next week. Tropical moisture
moving northward through Mexico will result in increasing chances
for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms through at
least early next week. There will be the potential for widespread
rainfall accumulating over several days, Saturday into Tuesday.
Minimum RH values will be at least 25+ percent in the valley`s,
with values in the Saturday through Tuesday time frame at 40+
percent. 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less into
the middle of next week and gusts to 20-25 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Run-off from the rainfall this weekend into early
next week will bring rises, possibly 3 to 6 foot rises, to the
main stem rivers/creeks across southeast Arizona with main
concerns being the San Pedro river, Nogales wash/Santa Cruz
river. Otherwise the normally dry washes and low water crossings
will have water flowing through them.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
  AZZ501>509-511>515.
&&
$$
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion