Boons Camp, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

009
FXUS63 KJKL 011832
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
232 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonably warm conditions persist into early next
  week.
- Valley fog is likely to develop each night this week in the
  deeper river valleys of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
The latest surface analysis indicates that the dominant synoptic
feature is a high-pressure center situated over central Ontario and
central Quebec. Although the highs center is displaced to the
north, its expansive influence is currently being felt across
eastern Kentucky.
For the remainder of the day and throughout the forecast period,
this robust dome of surface high pressure is expected to remain
firmly established across the region. The presence of this dome of
high pressure will lead to prevailing dry conditions and gradually
warming temperatures. Maximum temperatures today and Thursday are
forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. Consistent with the dry
pattern, the primary adjustment to the NBM guidance remains the
lowering of forecast dew points, as the prevailing synoptic flow is
not positioned to advect significant low-level moisture into the
area.
As for the overnight period, skies will remain predominantly clear.
This condition favors efficient radiational cooling of the surface,
which will enhance the potential for localized dense fog formation
within river valleys and other low-lying areas. Minimum temperatures
are expected to fall into the low to upper 50s, with the coldest
readings confined to valley locations due to topographic control.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend. The PoPs still
are looking quite limited during the rest of the work week and
over the weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough
extending into the Southeast Conus and portions of the Gulf while
an upper level ridge is progged to be in place across the OH and
TN Valleys and into the Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes, and Mid
Atlantic States. A shortwave trough is expected to extend from
the Upper MS Valley toward the Ozarks while another upper ridge
should be centered over NM and extend into Parts of the Southern
Plains as well as Southern Rockies to Central Plains. Further
west, the axis of an upper level trough should extend south west
of the west coast of the COnus from an upper low nearing the BC
coast and the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the period
should begin with a sfc high centered over Quebec/St Lawrence
Valley and extending southwest toward the mid MS Valley and down
the eastern seaboard while weak inverted troughing should extend
from LA and into the Commonwealth.
From Thursday to Friday night, upper level ridging per the
consensus of guidance should become centered form the OH Valley
to the mid Atlantic coast while weak upper troughing remains over
parts of the Southeast to the central and eastern Gulf with a
stronger upper ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern
Plains to mid MS Valley region. Further west, the upper trough
should move into and across portions of the western Conus and
reach the Northern Rockies to Great Basin to AZ by late Friday
night. By late Friday night, a weak upper low may develop over the
Lower MS Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge should become
centered further south over the mid Atlantic states into the
Southern Appalachians. For eastern KY, this scenario will favor
dry and mild weather with temperatures a few degrees above normal.
Valley fog, perhaps areas of fog, especially along rivers, larger
creeks, and area lakes should be a fixture each night through a
couple of hours after sunrise each day.
Saturday to Sunday night, upper level ridging is expected
initially to extend from the Atlantic into VA and Carolinas to OH
Valley while an upper level low is expected in the Lower MS
Valley to western Gulf areas while an upper level trough spreads
from the western Conus into parts of the Central to Northern
Plains. The weak upper level low should meander over the Northern
Gulf to Lower MS Valley vicinity while the axis of upper level
ridging should become centered east of the coast of the
Carolinas. The 12Z ECMWF operational run maintains a stronger
ridge and higher heights into eastern KY as compared to the most
recent GFS operational run while both also bring an upper level
trough into the upper MS Valley that nears the Great Lakes. This
leads to differences in how quickly moisture returns into eastern
KY. More recent GFS would support enough moisture return for a
few showers possibly encroaching the TN border to VA border
counties Sunday night. Either scenario favors above normal
temperatures continuing into the weekend and dry weather for most
of if not all the weekend. Valley fog, especially along rivers,
larger creeks, and area lakes should be a fixture each night
through a couple of hours after sunrise each day. For now
maintained the NBM pops that remained 10 percent or lower even
into Sunday night and generally reflect the ECMWF runs more
closely.
Monday and Tuesday, guidance generally has a series of shortwave
troughs moving from the Plains across the Great Lakes to the St
Lawrence Valley with a corresponding sfc frontal zone that
gradually moves toward the Northeast, across the Great Lakes, and
into the OH Valley. Guidance generally keeps an upper low over
the western Gulf to Lower MS Valley vicinity to begin the week,
but the GFS runs maintain deeper moisture and more moisture return
across eastern KY into Monday compared to the ECMWF. That would
support some shower chances Monday especially over the south
while the ECMWF is drier has more of an increase in moisture and
better chances for showers as the front nears later Monday night
and Tuesday. For now have maintained the isolated to scattered
pops of the NBM from late Monday night into Tuesday which are more
toward the ECMWF end of the guidance. Temperatures are expected
to continue to remain above normal ahead of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Locally dense river valley fog is expected overnight but
confidence is lacking on if it will make it into any of the 5 TAF
sites. Therefore, fog was left out of the TAF. Otherwise, winds
will be largely light and variable aside from northeasterly winds
around 8 knots at KLOZ and KSME through 00Z/Thursday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP/GREIF
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion