Bow Mar, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

292
FXUS65 KBOU 151726
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1126 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and drier today, with only a slight chance of a weak
  afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
- More unsettled and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday, with scattered
  to widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Satellite imagery showing the upper level low over Nebraska. The
low will continue to lift northward, taking the showers and storms
over northeast Colorado with it. By early evening, the showers
and thunderstorms will be northeast of Colorado.
Weak ridging moves across the region Monday leading to warmer and
drier conditions. High temperatures are expected to reach the
lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form over Wyoming ahead of an upper
level low approaching Colorado from the north. There is a slight
chance for a few of these to graze far northern Colorado. A cold
front pushes south through the area Monday night as the upper
level low slowly moves south into Wyoming Monday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across the area
Tuesday. The upper level continues to slowly advance southeastward
and will be over or near eastern Colorado on Wednesday. This will
continue the cool and unsettled pattern over Colorado. The low is
then expected to be east of Colorado late Wednesday.
The weather pattern is still somewhat unclear for Thursday
through next weekend. Upper level ridge builds west of Colorado,
over the Great Basin. Meanwhile the upper level low remains just
east of Colorado. Latest runs show this ridging a little farther
west with more of a north-northwest flow aloft over Colorado. It`s
beginning to look more likely that Thursday will be another cool
and unsettled day. Friday`s weather will depend on far east the
ridging builds and advances, but latest trends has slowed the
eastward advancement of the ridge, slowing the warming trend. For
next weekend, there`s a slight preference for ridging for
Saturday, but there are plenty of other solutions, though none
point to any large systems just weak waves embedded in the flow
aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Light winds to prevail today with a general south to southeast
direction. VFR to prevail through tonight and Tuesday. Can`t rule
out a weak shower 21-01Z that produces a wind shift, but chances for
this are low (10-15)%. A return to a southerly drainage direction
will occur this evening. There may be a brief turn to the north
overnight as a weak front moves through. We will see a steady north
to northeast come late Tuesday morning. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms returns after 22Z Tuesday.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Meier

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion