363 FXUS63 KPAH 091727 AFDPAHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will linger through the middle of next week, but a few sprinkles are possible Friday night over southern Illinois.
- Below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday night, before warming to near normal levels Friday into Saturday. The Mt Vernon and Fairfield areas in southern Illinois may see lows Friday morning in the upper 30s!
- Temperatures will climb back above normal beginning Sunday and reaching near 80 by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
A surface high pressure system will remain in control of the weather across the Quad State through the upcoming weekend. Aloft, the area will be on the east side of an upper-level ridge axis allowing for cooler northwest flow into the area. At the same time, a fairly deep upper-level low is progged to dive southeastward through the Great Lakes before meandering to the northeast CONUS. That shouldn`t have much impact here, except for amplifying the ridge to the west and the northwest flow across the area. There is a weak cold front/surface trough that drifts through the area Friday night, which may have just enough moisture to touch off some sprinkles and to increase cloud cover. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be below normal through Friday before warming above normal over the weekend. Highs will mainly be in the low 70s with lows in the 40s to low 50s. The coldest night will be tonight with light winds and clear skies. A few colder locations may see some upper 30s for overnight lows!!
An upper-level ridge axis will build across the area for early next week, leading to another substantial warmup across the area. Most locations will warm into the low to mid 80s, which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. As warm air advection and moisture increases across the area, expect an increase in cloud cover early next week as well. Right now it doesn`t look like any great chances for precipitation.&&
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Winds are out of the northeast at 5-15 kts this afternoon with occasional gusts to around 20 kts. Winds will go calm overnight. Some patchy fog is possible before dawn tomorrow particularly at MVN and CGI. Winds will be light and variable tomorrow with midlevel clouds moving in from the northwest tomorrow afternoon.
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.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
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DISCUSSION...KC AVIATION...HICKFORD
NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion