Boys Ranch, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

771
FXUS65 KABQ 232330 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Another crop of showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
  southern high terrain and northeast New Mexico this afternoon.
  Some of this activity may produce strong outflow winds and brief
  heavy rain. There is a moderate risk for burn scar flash
  flooding in the Ruidoso area late today and tonight.
- A backdoor cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to
  northeast New Mexico today then to all of eastern New Mexico on
  Wednesday. North wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible over
  eastern New Mexico tonight. Canyon winds may gust to between 25
  and 35 mph on the east side of Albuquerque late Tuesday night.
- Forecast confidence remains moderate that a Pacific system will
  approach from the west at the end of the work week, bringing
  improved chances for showers and storms to western New Mexico
  Thursday then more of the region Friday through the weekend.
  This scenario would lead to an increasing risk for burn scar
  flash flooding going into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The upper level pattern is currently being dominated by an upper
low that is dropping into CO with a speed max approaching 90 kt at
300 mb over northern NM. To the west, a cut-off low is spinning
offshore of southern CA, a player for this weekend`s weather. The
CO low is bringing a swath of dry air into the northwestern third
or so of NM, shutting down storms there with some breezy to windy
conditions in the wake of a Pacific front. Weak frontogenetical
forcing and surface convergence will help ignite thunderstorms
over the southwestern NM mountains this afternoon. These will
translate eastward at a relatively quick clip of 20-25 mph,
eventually threatening the Ruidoso area burn scars by the early
evening. PWATs in this southern tier of the forecast area range
from about 0.75-1.0 inch, so a few brief heavy downpours are
anticipated with multiple rounds of storms being likely. This
supports the Flash Flood Watch that was issued last night. The
other focal area is northeastern NM where the backdoor segment of
the front will be sliding in and also triggering storms. These
cells will also be in a similar PWAT environment that could
support a few brief heavy downpours with activity struggling to
advance very far south. Breezy to windy conditions will also be
found in the eastern plains this evening into tonight as the
surface gradient tightens in the vicinity of the front. A gusty
gap/canyon wind (gusts of 25-30 mph) is also projected to spill
into the middle Rio Grande valley early Wednesday morning. Batches
of low stratus and a few patches of fog will also accompany the
front as it progresses southward over the NM plains.
The CO low will pivot into the MO river valley on Wednesday with
heights only nudging upward slightly across NM. The aforementioned
dry swath of air will overtake more of NM on Wednesday with mainly
just the southern high terrain hanging onto enough moisture for
subdued shower and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures will run 5
to 10 degrees below normal in much of the northern and eastern
tiers of NM on Wednesday, giving some a taste of Fall.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The cut-off low is modeled to move inland over CA on Thursday with
a ridge aloft preceding it. This will reduce the winds aloft over
NM while allowing temperatures to rebound back to seasonal
readings across the forecast area. Monsoon moisture will also
start to creep northward on the backside of the ridge,
infiltrating more of southeastern AZ and southwestern NM where
increased storm coverage would follow on Thursday. Deterministic
and probabilistic solutions are insistent that the cut-off low
will migrate over southern CA and the upper Baja peninsula by
Friday with a more robust monsoon plume overtaking southeastern
AZ and southern NM. This will spread storms a bit farther east on
Friday, but a more notable eastward shift is projected into the
weekend when the upper low begins to fill in and lift
northeastward across AZ. Western and central NM zones would fare
best with this track of the low remnants, and while there is
currently great consensus on the track, past experiences with the
notoriously poor modeling of cut-off lows (especially during
seasonal transitions), there are almost always last minute
surprises. For now POPs in the Friday to weekend time frame have
been tempered slightly from the blended guidance, but still many
western and central zones reach the likely category (60%) Sunday.
Storm coverage would then falter into Monday as the trough axis
slides east of NM and drier air builds in behind. Temperatures
would cool 5 to 10 degrees below climatology in western and
central zones Sunday, and even some eastern zones by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Scattered showers and storms will quickly move from west to east
across south-central NM and northeast NM this afternoon and
evening. As of 2330Z, a backdoor front has entered the northeast
corner of the state and will continue its trek south and west
through the evening and night. Gusty winds up to 30KT are likely
in its wake and eventually through the gaps in the central
mountain chain late tonight. While MVFR cigs and patchy fog may
develop in the wake of the front, persistent low clouds are not
likely outside of southeastern NM and along the east slopes of the
Sacramento mountains. Isolated showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon will focus over the high terrain of southwest and south-
central NM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Breezy to windy conditions will continue to unfold over the
northwestern plateau and San Juan basin of NM this afternoon.
Minimum afternoon humidity of 20-25% will also occur, but
conditions are not projected to hit critical thresholds on a
widespread or long duration basis. Storms will focus over the
southwestern mountains and also northeastern NM as the front
continues moving into the state through this evening. Drier air
in the wake of the front will limit storms on Wednesday, and
overall minimum afternoon humidity values will run just slightly
lower with readings of 15-20% in more of northwestern NM. One more
day of low humidity will plague northwestern NM again on
Thursday, but thereafter increased humidity, clouds, and storms
will arrive with a burst of monsoon moisture preceding a cut-off
low. Storms will multiply each day with Sunday likely seeing the
most activity over western and central NM zones per latest model
runs where high (60%) chances for wetting rainfall will be reached
with cooler than average temperatures. Storms will reduce on
Monday, but the elevated humidity and cooler temperatures will
linger.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  76  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  32  74  36  77 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  39  71  42  76 /   0   5   0  10
Gallup..........................  38  76  40  80 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  41  75  44  78 /   0   5   5  20
Grants..........................  40  76  42  80 /   0   5   5  20
Quemado.........................  44  78  46  78 /   5  10  10  30
Magdalena.......................  48  73  51  76 /  10  20  20  40
Datil...........................  45  74  47  75 /  10  20  20  50
Reserve.........................  47  84  48  83 /  10  20  20  40
Glenwood........................  54  89  54  87 /   5  20  20  40
Chama...........................  33  68  37  72 /   5   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  44  69  47  73 /   0   5   0  10
Pecos...........................  41  68  42  74 /  10  10   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  38  68  41  73 /  20   5   0   5
Red River.......................  31  58  34  64 /  30  10   0   5
Angel Fire......................  26  62  28  68 /  20  10   5  10
Taos............................  37  71  39  76 /  10   5   0   5
Mora............................  36  64  38  71 /  20  20   5  10
Espanola........................  43  75  44  80 /   0   5   0   5
Santa Fe........................  45  70  47  74 /   5  10   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  43  73  44  77 /   5   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  77  54  81 /   5   5   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  79  52  82 /   5   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  81  52  84 /   5   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  79  52  82 /   5   0   5   5
Belen...........................  49  80  50  83 /   5   0   5  10
Bernalillo......................  50  79  50  83 /   5   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  48  79  49  83 /   5   0   5  10
Corrales........................  51  80  51  83 /   5   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  50  79  50  83 /   5   0   5  10
Placitas........................  49  75  50  78 /   5   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  51  79  51  83 /   5   0   5   5
Socorro.........................  55  82  55  85 /  20  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  71  45  76 /   5   5   5  10
Tijeras.........................  46  73  47  76 /   5   5   5  10
Edgewood........................  44  72  42  78 /   5   5   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  43  73  40  79 /  10   5   5  10
Clines Corners..................  44  66  44  74 /  10   5   5  10
Mountainair.....................  46  71  44  76 /  10   5   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  47  71  46  76 /  20   5  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  54  75  53  78 /  50  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  48  65  47  71 /  50  30  20  20
Capulin.........................  40  60  39  72 /  70  10   0   5
Raton...........................  41  65  39  76 /  60  10   0   5
Springer........................  43  69  40  77 /  50  10   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  42  66  42  74 /  20  10   5  10
Clayton.........................  48  68  46  77 /  70  10   0   0
Roy.............................  45  68  44  75 /  60  10   0   5
Conchas.........................  54  74  49  82 /  50  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  52  71  47  80 /  40  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  51  71  46  79 /  40  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  56  76  51  81 /  40  20   5   5
Portales........................  56  76  50  82 /  40  20   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  56  75  50  81 /  40  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  60  76  55  83 /  50  20   5  10
Picacho.........................  53  71  50  79 /  40  20  10  20
Elk.............................  51  69  48  78 /  40  30  20  20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ226.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion