Brampton, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

259
FXUS63 KMQT 062349
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spotty lake effect rain showers re-develop over the NW wind belts
this evening, persisting into early Sunday.
- A cool airmass will remain over the Upper Great Lakes through the
weekend, with some moderation expected early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Afternoon RAP analysis reveals broad troughing over Ontario and the
Great Lakes, and a couple of embedded shortwaves - one exiting
eastward out of the UP and another beginning to drop into western
Lake Superior. Drier air in place behind the first wave has allowed
for more breaks in the clouds as well as a brief period of dry
weather, with just some strato-cu apparent on visible satellite as
well as stray upper level cloud cover streaming in ahead of the next
wave. Temperatures remain quite cool, only peaking in the 50s for
most and just flirting with the 60 degree mark closer to the WI
border.
This evening, the aforementioned secondary shortwave drops through,
with reinforcing CAA allowing lake effect rain showers to pop off
once again across the NW wind lake effect belts. Meanwhile,
temperatures fall back into the upper 30s and lower 40s across much
of the area, with a chance for some spots in the interior-western UP
fall further into the mid 30s. This would present a potential for
some patchy frost development, but confidence is low.
Sunday, showers gradually taper off from west to east as winds back
more westerly with a ridge building into the Great Lakes. With a
much drier airmass, expect more breaks of sunshine while
temperatures climb into the 50s once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Dry weather persists into Monday with ridging over the Rockies
supporting surface high pressure centered over the central
Mississippi valley. However, this begins to break down late in the
day as another trough drops out of Saskatchewan, dragging an
associated cold front through the Great Lakes late Monday night into
Tuesday. This presents our next opportunity for rain, and perhaps
some rubles of thunder with soundings showing some elevated
instability. By midweek, deepening midlevel low pressure will be
spinning over the Pacific Northwest and over Quebec, with riding
recovering over the central CONUS. This will keep the U.P under a
northwest to westerly upper level flow through the latter half of
the week while surface high pressure expands over the region,
favoring a return to mainly dry weather. Temperatures moderate some,
peaking in the 60s are-wide each day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions have returned to all TAF sites. However, will carry a
tempo at CMX through Sun 04Z to capture any lingering lake effect
rain showers still in the area that could result in some brief MVFR
conditions. Meanwhile, the northwesterly winds have tapered off and
are now below the 12 kt threshold at all TAF sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Low pressure near James Bay continues to move into northern Quebec
tonight into Sunday, with a weakening pressure gradient over the
region allowing westerly winds to briefly fall back to around 20kts
this evening into the first half of the night. Winds shift north-
northwest early Sunday morning as another cold front sweeps across
the lake from the north, increasing once again to around 20-25kts.
Wind come back down to near 15-20 kts for Sunday night and Monday.
Winds shift over to the south Monday night into Tuesday ahead of
another trough, with guidance showing around a 20% chance for gales
across eastern Lake Superior before winds fall back below 20kts
again late Tuesday through midweek.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion