Branch, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS64 KLCH 050526
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier air in the mid levels is expected to reduce rain chances
  today as temperatures remain typical summertime hot with
  afternoon heat index between 100 and 105 degrees.
- There will be a chance for showers or thunderstorms this weekend
  as moisture pools ahead of a cold front that will push through
  the region early Sunday.
- Slightly below normal temperatures and noticeably drier air is
  expected in the wake of the front early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
During the overnight, dry air above the surface will bring about
clear skies, with light south winds at surface. Some patchy fog will
be possible, especially over upper southeast Texas and central
Louisiana, however, widespread dense fog is not anticipated.
For today, expecting a mid level ridge to move across the forecast
area with dry and subsident air. This should provide a cap to the
atmosphere that will limit any shower activity with PWAT values
below 1.5 inches and mean layer relative humidity values near or
below 50 percent.
At the surface, southerly flow will still occur helping to bring in
low level Gulf moisture that will keep normal summertime air
temperatures and humid conditions with highs in the low to mid 90s
and afternoon heat index between 100F and 105F degrees.
On Saturday, rain chances will be back in the forecast. A cold
frontal system from the north will approach the forecast area.
Meanwhile, upper level high will break down with flow becoming more
westerly allowing for some East Pac moisture to reach the forecast
area. At this point the deeper tropical moisture from the remnants
of Pacific system Lorena is progged to stay to the northwest and
west of the forecast area. Still PWAT values increase to between
1.75 and 2 inches with mean layer relative humidity above 60
percent. Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur.
The chances for showers will continue Sunday morning before
gradually decreasing during the afternoon from north to south as
drier air behind the cold front begins to filter in.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Significantly drier and cooler air is expected behind a cold front
as the period begins on Monday that will persist through at least
the middle part of the week. Temperatures, especially lows at nights
are forecast to be below normal. The "coolest" period on Monday
night into Tuesday morning with NBM showing lows near 60F for
central Louisiana and upper southeast Texas and mid 60s down to the
I-10 corridor. It should be cautioned that the deterministic NBM
temperatures during that period are at or below the 25th percentile
of the whisker plot. However, there is support from GFS and ECMWF
MOS to see low temperatures in that range.
Also, with the drier air, very little to no chance of significant
shower activity is expected during this period.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
With clear skies and light winds, some patchy fog may form across
portions of central Louisiana during the overnight toward sunrise.
Therefore, will have A TEMPO group at KAEX from roughly 05/09z-13z
for MVFR conditions due to patchy fog. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected through the night.
Drier air above the surface is expected to persist today, and
therefore not expecting any shower activity or ceilings from cloud
cover. Therefore, expect VFR conditions with light south winds
through the day.
Rua
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Weak high pressure across the northern Gulf will persist today
allowing for mainly light southerly winds and low seas. Drier air
will help keep the chance for showers today on the low side. The
light southerly winds will continue until late Saturday night into
Sunday when a cold front will move into the coastal waters and bring
a modest offshore flow. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
also increase over the weekend as the frontal system moves across.
Offshore winds will increasing early next week as high pressure
builds down from the Midwest.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Drier air mainly in the mid levels of the atmosphere will continue
today. This will bring about a near zero chance for any significant
shower activity. Light southerly winds will persist at the surface
that will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values near or
above 50 percent. Moisture will increase on Saturday ahead of a cold
front that will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  72  89  67 /   0  10  30  10
LCH  91  75  91  72 /   0   0  30  10
LFT  92  74  91  72 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  92  75  91  73 /   0   0  30  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion