Briar Gate Park, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

312
FXUS64 KFWD 190625
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected this morning
  and afternoon as a cluster of storms moves through North Texas.
- Low rain chances persist this weekend, but a stronger system
  could better rain chances and slightly cooler weather next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/
A weak frontal boundary remains stalled just to our north-
northwest, and can be broadly seen in both surface wind
observations and on radar where isolated convection continues to
develop. Further north in Oklahoma, scattered showers and storms
are developing in western-central Oklahoma in response to a
passing mid-level shortwave disturbance, and will gradually move
south-southeast through the rest of the overnight hours. Latest
high-res guidance is not handling what is currently on radar, so
we will continue to keep an eye on how things develop. The cluster
and subsequent outflow boundary are expected to move across the
Red River generally between 8-10AM and advance south the rest of
the morning and afternoon. While severe weather is not
anticipated, we can not rule out a strong wind gust if the
cluster holds together as it crosses the Red River. Better rain
chances will remain in East Texas, though additional isolated
convection may develop further west along the outflow boundary as
it moves through the region this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
are expected to peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s overall, though
wherever showers develop in the afternoon may inhibit better
warming. As we head into the evening and night, coverage of
showers and storms will wane with the loss of daytime heating.
The upper low to our north and the trough will finally eject
eastward, with broad ridging building in across South Texas and
Mexico as we head into Saturday. North and Central Texas will
remain on the northern periphery of the ridge, with more W-NW flow
aloft. A shortwave disturbance will make its way across the
Central-Southern Plains during the day tomorrow, bringing
additional showers and storms to Oklahoma in the afternoon. Most
of this activity should remain to our north, though isolated
showers and storms will be possible in the vicinity of the Red
River and in our northwestern counties. Severe weather is not
anticipated with any of this activity, though lighting and gusty,
erratic winds may impact any outdoor activities or events.
Otherwise, another day of high temperatures in the upper 80s to
mid 90s is expected.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Evening Onward/
Broad mid-level troughing will dominate the eastern CONUS as we
head into the weekend, shunting the Mexico-Desert Southwest ridge
a bit westward. W-NW flow overtop the Central-Southern Plains will
allow for our unsettled weather patten to continue as
disturbances flow across the region. Daily chances for showers and
storms will prevail Sunday through the majority of this upcoming
week. There remains the potential for a stout upper low to swing
through the Plains near midweek, sending a cold front south. If
the cold front is able to make it through the region, we would
experience cooler temperatures as we head into late this upcoming
week. However, guidance is quite split on whether or not the front
will pass through, with the GFS keeping the front to our north
the rest of the week in North Texas and the Euro fully pushing it
through mid week. 30% of total ensemble members reflects the GFS
solution at this time. All this being said - it is currently more
likely that the front will push through before the end of the
week, but there is still about a 1 in 3 chance that the front
would remain to our north for longer. We`ll continue to keep an
eye on future guidance for better confidence and alignment as we
get closer in time.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
Southerly winds will prevail through the period, oscillating
between SW and SE. A cluster of storms currently developing in
Oklahoma is expected to move S-SE overnight through the morning.
The cluster of storms will likely stay east of the airports, but
its attendant outflow boundary will move through D10 late this
morning, temporarily shunting D10 winds out of the north-northeast
for a few hours. By early afternoon winds will veer more easterly
in the wake of the outflow, along with low potential for isolated
showers and storms along the boundary. The best timing for any
convective impact within D10 will be between 18-22Z, and between
20-00Z at ACT. Winds will eventually settle out of the southeast
late this afternoon and evening, with VFR prevailing.
Prater
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  93  74  91  74 /  20  20   0   5  10
Waco                70  92  71  92  72 /   5  20   5   5   5
Paris               68  92  69  90  70 /  20  40   0   5  10
Denton              69  93  70  91  71 /  20  20   0  10  20
McKinney            70  93  71  91  71 /  20  30   5   5  10
Dallas              73  95  74  93  74 /  20  20   0   5  10
Terrell             68  92  70  90  71 /  10  40   0   5  10
Corsicana           70  93  72  92  73 /   5  20   5   0   5
Temple              68  92  70  92  71 /   5  20   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       68  95  69  94  70 /  10  10   0  10  20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion