Bricelyn, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

425
FXUS63 KMPX 082359
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late this
  evening into tomorrow. A few storms across northern and
  central Minnesota may produce large hail.
- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible throughout
  the day tomorrow, particularly across western Wisconsin.
- Temperatures continue to warm through the week with highs in
  the 80s returning by the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Temperatures just after noon today had already climbed into the low
to mid 70s area wide, despite the presence of wildfire smoke aloft.
This is the first time getting above the 70 degree mark in nearly a
week for most locales. Moisture has also been on the increase with
southerly flow sending Tds up into the upper 50s and low 60s. A warm
front lies somewhere between Brainerd and Bemidji and a thunderstorm
has gone up just ahead of this boundary in north central Minnesota.
Further south and west, 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE is expected to
build through this evening across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota. Aloft, a strengthening 850mb jet across east
central Minnesota will be displaced from this main axis of
instability. The area that sees the overlap of these two
features is likely to be small, but has the best chance at
seeing a few strong to severe storms tonight. Best chance,
however, does not mean high chance. Because this set up is so
conditional, PoPs have been knocked back a bit through the
overnight period.
The stalled frontal boundary from today will keep 30-50% PoPs in the
picture through much of the day tomorrow. Better forcing arrives in
the form of a weak shortwave by mid afternoon, leading to a second,
more organized round of showers and storms across western Wisconsin.
QPF totals from this evening through tomorrow evening are around
0.25" or less, with some higher amounts possible for our Wisconsin
counties. Precip is expected to come to an end late tomorrow
with winds dropping off and skies clearing quickly into
Wednesday morning. This will likely lead to a foggy start to
Wednesday across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
The remainder of the work week looks dry with temperatures
approaching the low to mid 80s by this weekend as ridging sets up
shop across the central CONUS. Far southern Minnesota may make a
(final?) run at 90 on Saturday, with overnight lows warmer than
our highs this past weekend. A smattering of < 25% PoPs exists
through the second half of the weekend and into next week, but
widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Showers across central and northern MN should remain near or
north of AXN and STC this evening. Confidence diminishes
overnight and Tuesday with continuous low chances for showers
or storms for the rest of the period. The evening activity could
build south overnight and Tuesday morning. However to keep from
having PROB30s littering the whole forecast, mostly highlighted
Tuesday afternoon with building instability along a weak
boundary as the most favorable window for development. VFR will
continue this evening, then lower clouds should develop late
tonight or Tuesday morning with MVFR cigs, possibly IFR levels
in some instances with shower activity.
KMSP...Wind gusts will ease early, but steady south wind 10-15
kts will continue through the evening. Increasing winds to 45
kts around 2kft could lead to a bit of wind shear later this
evening and into the overnight. There is a chance of showers
Tuesday morning, but the better chance appears to be in the
afternoon with building instability.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion