609 FXUS64 KMRX 111730 AFDMRXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 130 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 129 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected through next week.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
The pattern through much of this forecast period will feature a high amplitude ridge in the mid/upper levels extending from TX toward the Great Lakes, and a trough off the Atlantic coast. A surface high over Ontario will extend southward across the OH/TN VAlley region. This will be a dry pattern for East TN in a deep north to northwest flow. For tonight and tomorrow, some broken high cloud cover will spread into our eastern sections, associated with the coastal low off the NC/SC coast. Some moisture around 850 mb may spread over the mountaintops into NE TN and SW VA tomorrow, but conditions will be too dry and stable above that level to sustain any rain showers.
Temperatures through this forecast period will be seasonable and steady, with highs each afternoon in the 70s and lows each morning in the 40s and 50s.
Next weekend, the upper ridge may finally start to progress east of our area as a trough drops into the Plains, which may allow for some rain chances to arrive near the end of this forecast period.
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
VFR conditions are forecast at all sites this period. TYS will have winds in the 10-15 kt range this afternoon as NE winds are channeled down the TN Valley. Fog seems unlikely toward sunrise as some light winds may create some weak mixing, and high clouds will be scattered to broken at TRI.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 78 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 76 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 49 76 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 73 50 73 / 0 0 10 0
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.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&
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DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS
NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion