Brightside, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

768
FXUS61 KALY 290649
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
249 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions in store today and through the next week.
Unseasonably warm temperatures through Tuesday, seasonal
temperatures Wednesday through Friday, with afternoon
temperatures returning to unseasonably warm for the upcoming
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message: No precipitation chances in the next seven days
with seasonable temperatures returning by midweek.
A rinse and repeat of the forecast from yesterday. No changes
in the NBM and ensemble forecast model guidances with upper
level ridging in place and surface high pressure is overhead
contributing to dry conditions and no precipitation chances
across eastern New York and western New England this week. Early
morning patchy fog could develop, especially in river valley
locations. Today and tomorrow, we`ll continue to observe
temperatures five to ten degrees above normal with highs in the
upper 60s and in the 70s. A dry cold front moves through
tonight into tomorrow from the north bringing colder air behind
where temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning drop 20
to 30 degrees with lows ranging the 30s and low 40s. Wednesday
is still on track to be a seasonable fall day with highs in the
upper 50s and low to mid-60s. A rogue wind gust up to 25 mph
can`t be ruled out in the higher terrain of the eastern
Catskills during the overnight hours Tuesday, then winds are
trending to gust between 10 and 20 mph for Wednesday afternoon.
Winds in the Hudson River Valley could gust between 15 and 20
mph during the afternoon hours Wednesday. A good drying day as
well for Wednesday as soil moisture [based on Multi-Radar Multi-
Sensor (MRMS) data] across much of eastern New York and western
New England is still between 35 and 90 percent. By Wednesday
night, winds become calmer and continue to range between calm
and up to 10 mph through the end of the week as the center of
the surface high pressure system is right overhead.
Frost conditions are currently present for Wednesday night into
Thursday morning across the eastern Catskills, southern
Vermont, Berkshires, and the southern Adirondacks. We`ll
continue to monitor temperatures, winds, and sky cover trends
this week as conditions are currently favorable for calm winds
and low temperatures below 36 degrees. If temperatures fall
below 32 degrees, freeze conditions could occur in the southern
Adirondacks, but as the Frost/Freeze program ends for them on
the 1st, headlines will likely not be issued for there.
Nevertheless, be prepared to protect plants and vegetation
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise, most locations
could observe low temperatures Thursday morning in the mid 30s
to low 40s. High temperatures Thursday continue to range in the
50s and 60s.
A few locations in southern Vermont and the southern Adirondacks
could see some clear skies for good radiational cooling on Friday
morning and allow for patchy frost to develop, but forecast
confidence at this time is low for the rest of the eastern New
York and western New England region as high clouds are
forecasted to move through which could contribute to limiting
how cool temperatures get on Thursday night into Friday morning.
Low temperatures range in the mid 30s to low 40s Friday
morning. High temperatures for Friday range in the 60s and low
70s. Low temperatures range Saturday morning in the 40s. For
this weekend, we return to 5 to 10 degrees above normal for high
temperatures with highs ranging in the low to upper 70s. Lows
range in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Primary concern for the upcoming TAF is the
threat of fog/mist this morning with clear skies, light winds and
incoming high pressure promoting efficient radiational cooling
across the region. Confidence on fog/mist potential remains highest
at KGFL/KPSF/KPOU, where MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through
about 29/12z. Low confidence for impactful mist at KALB, but
continue to mention VFR BCFG in the TAF. Beyond this, VFR conditions
are expected through the period with continued influence from high
pressure. Light & variable winds will increase out of the south to
around 5 kts by mid morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Speck

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion