Brinkley, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

832
FXUS64 KLZK 050413
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1113 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
-Warm conditions will continue into Friday, with area high temps
 in the upper 80s to low 90s prior to the arrival of a cold front.
-Significant pattern change is expected Friday evening into
 Saturday as a cold front moves across the state.
-Rain and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
 through Saturday evening behind along and behind the cold front.
-A much cooler airmass behind the front will usher in below-normal
 temperatures beginning Friday afternoon and persist into early
 next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
THURSDAY (Today) INTO FRIDAY:
Northwesterly flow remains in place over Arkansas due to a broad
upper lvl ridge across the Western region of the CONUS and a trof
across the Great Lakes region of the CONUS. Despite a few impulses
within this flow regime, limited moisture will keep Thursday dry
across the Natural State.
Into Friday, a cold front will begin to move across the state from
north to south throughout the day and rain with isolated
thunderstorm chances will accompany along and behind this anafront
with PoP chances increasing Friday evening into Friday night across
Arkansas. However, before the arrival of this cold front and colder
airmass behind the boundary, compressional heating along and just
ahead of the frontal boundary will allow locations in central and
southern Arkansas to top out in the low to upper 90s for high
temperatures on Friday afternoon.
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY:
A major upper lvl pattern shift will take place late Friday and have
significant repercussions on our forecast into the weekend and the
following workweek. The upper lvl ridge over the Western region of
the CONUS will begin to flatten out and allow an upper lvl trof to
dig into the Mid-West region of the CONUS extending southward into
the Mid-South region of the CONUS. Expect an increased opportunity
across the state for rain and a few thunderstorms to develop Friday
night into the day on Saturday.
Model guidance is in exceptional agreement regarding Thursday and
Friday as well as with the placement, movement, and timing of the
cold front across Arkansas on Friday. However, ensemble members from
both GFS and ECMWF driven solutions begin to diverge slightly with
the ECMWF solutions presenting a drier and quicker progressing area
of PoP chances into the day on Saturday with the GFS beginning to
trend toward the ECMWF solutions, but remains slightly slower to exit
the state and increases PoP chances along with total rainfall
amounts.
Expect agreement to likely become clear in the next 24 hour window;
however, given the significant football games and other Saturday
events taking place it appears latest forecast guidance will keep
the greatest chance for rain and a few isolated thunderstorms
possible on Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon before
chances begin to greatly diminish into Saturday late afternoon and
Saturday evening reserved to southern Arkansas during later Saturday
into Saturday night. In hindsight, those attending the
aforementioned football games will want to still plan on the
possibility of rain and an isolated thunderstorms (predominately
before kickoff), especially if tailgating before the game, but
expect improving conditions by kickoff and during the game as
chances for precipitation will lower significantly.
Into the remainder of the weekend (Sunday) through Tuesday, expect
dry and fair weather conditions to be present across the state as
sfc high pressure moves into the region along with a continental
airmass which will lead to temperatures with respect to morning lows
and afternoon highs to be upwards of nearly 10 degrees below normal
for early September. Into Wednesday, the dry conditions are forecast
to continue with temperatures gradually increasing to seasonal
averages for early September, a trend expected to continue to finish
out the workweek moving toward mid-September.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the majority of the forecast period from
early Friday morning through early Saturday morning across all
terminals. The only exception will be vicinity showers and
thunderstorms that will be present across all sites as a cold front
moves across the state from north to south throughout the day on
Friday which may drop VSBY in the strongest of storms. A pronounced
surface wind shift will be noted during the day on Friday as the
cold front moves across the state which will be most noted across
northern and central terminals during the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  67  91  58 /  10   0  10  60
Camden AR         93  69  95  64 /   0   0  10  50
Harrison AR       85  64  80  53 /   0   0  10  60
Hot Springs AR    91  69  93  62 /   0   0  10  60
Little Rock   AR  91  70  92  62 /   0   0  10  40
Monticello AR     94  72  97  65 /   0   0  10  50
Mount Ida AR      92  70  92  61 /   0   0  10  60
Mountain Home AR  87  64  84  54 /  10   0  10  60
Newport AR        90  68  93  59 /  10   0  10  50
Pine Bluff AR     96  70  96  62 /   0   0  10  50
Russellville AR   94  70  92  62 /   0   0  10  50
Searcy AR         91  67  92  60 /   0   0  10  50
Stuttgart AR      91  70  95  62 /   0   0  10  50
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion