Bronot Cemetery, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS63 KSGF 301057
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
557 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry weather for the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Today`s synoptic pattern has us in overall weak upper-level
flow within the deformation zone between the low pressure of
Tropical Storm Imelda off the eastern coast of Florida, the high
pressure sprawled across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and the
weak semi-cyclonic flow associated with a closed and weakening
250mb low that is getting dragged from central Texas down the
Gulf Cost by the subtropical jet. Overall, ridging remains
the dominant force over the conditions of the day and the rest
of the week.
Warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s again this afternoon
under partly cloudy skies. While we remain in the middle of a
steady-state pattern under deep ridging at all levels, cloud
cover will increase compared to yesterday, especially the
further south and west you get, thanks to some modest upper-
level moisture transport and CVA from the disturbance down in
Texas. Areas with increased cloud cover may stay a few degrees
cooler. However, clouds may not begin to cover the sky in
central Missouri until later this evening. In the absence of
high clouds and with steep low-level lapse rates approaching dry
adiabatic, mixing is expected to be more efficient, decreasing
dew points into the low 50s in some parts of the eastern Ozarks.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
If you don`t have deja vu yet, you will soon. IQRs for max and
min temps are quite small (1-3 degrees) every day through
Sunday, indicating that confidence is high in temperature
forecast values for the remainder of the week. In addition to
low spread, there is also little day-to-day change in
temperature at a given location, so there is also only expected
to be about 1-3 degrees difference in max and min temps from
one day to the next. This couple degree difference will come
down to cloud cover-- more clouds, slightly lower max T
and/or slightly higher min T; less clouds, slightly higher max T
and/or slightly lower min T. Overall, expect consistent
conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
A slow-moving trough pushes across the Intermountain West late
in the week and over the weekend. This won`t have any direct
impacts on our area`s forecast until early next week according
to the majority of ensemble members, but this disturbance will
eventually be the source of our next change in weather. The
hemispheric wave will help to flatten out our ridge going into
the weekend, which will allow a subsequent shortwave in the
Southwest to undercut it and finally kick this persistent
pattern. Once this happens, our next rain chances can finally
come to fruition... Tuesday and Wednesday we finally see
"increased" PoPs into the 10-20% range.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR through the TAF period, with light (

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion