Brownville New York Weather Forecast Discussion

833
FXUS61 KBUF 102334
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
734 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east off the coast of New England tonight.
Low pressure will cross the Great Lakes Saturday before stalling
near western New York Saturday night through Monday, supporting
cloudy skies and periods of showers. Dry weather will then return
mid-week as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A well defined mid-level closed low and associated weak surface low
will drop southeast across the Great Lakes tonight reaching the
eastern shores of Lake Huron by daybreak Saturday. Ahead of this
system, expect increasing assent and moisture resulting in an
increase of cloud cover this evening and overnight from west to
east. Additionally with this system, expect showers to arrive reach
far western New York early Saturday morning before pushing slightly
further east across western New York reaching as far as Rochester
Saturday afternoon. The better locations to receive measurable
precipitation Saturday will lie across the Niagara Frontier and the
Southern Tier due to deeper pockets of moisture and forcing.
With regards to temperatures for tonight, expect a `milder` night
with lows in the mid to upper 40s, with few colder spots possibly
falling into the upper 30s, supporting some patchy frost.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Aforementioned compact mid-level closed low and corresponding
surface low will interact with a developing coastal low Saturday
night, supporting a east to southeasterly wind and advect some
Atlantic moisture into the region. Overall, chances for showers will
continue through Saturday night, with some locations having locally
heavier precipitation totals. This being said, amounts will likely
be variable.
The coastal low will strengthen Sunday while moving off shore from
the Carolinas by Sunday night. This will translate to deep area of
moisture to pivot back into the region along with increased lift
over the eastern Great Lakes and result in more widespread
precipitation across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Monday and
Monday night, the coastal low will gradually depart out, supporting
precipitation to gradually be stripped away from the area. However,
this being said, there may be some lingering light precipitation
across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will build across the
central CONUS Tuesday, supporting mainly dry weather to return. The
next cold front will slide southeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday
night and Wednesday, however by the time the front reaches the
eastern Great Lakes, it will have lost a majority of the moisture,
supporting only a few sparse showers Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Ridging will then fill back in across the region Thursday and
Friday, however cool air will advect across the region, supporting
some lake enhanced showers south and southeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario. These showers will greatly depend on how much moisture
there is to tap into, at the moment, moisture looks limited which
will greatly impact shower development. Stay tuned...
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail this evening as surface high pressure slides
east off of the coast of New England.
A mid-level low and corresponding weak surface low will move into
the Great Lakes tonight, bring increasing high clouds. Overnight,
the mid-level and surface lows will move southeast across the Great
Lakes, supporting the first of the showers to move into Western NY
during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Clouds will thicken and lower
from west to east, but CIGS will remain VFR through Saturday morning.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely, mainly across Western NY.
Sunday through Monday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely at times.
Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will drift off the New England coast, with
increasing southerly winds tonight through Saturday morning. With
the southerly wind direction, most of the wave action will be pushed
into Canadian waters. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely at the northeast end of Lake Ontario.
Winds will diminish and become easterly later Saturday through
Saturday night. The east winds may increase Sunday through Monday,
bringing the potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on the
central and western portions of Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion