Brush Creek State Wildlife Management Area Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

231
FXUS63 KSGF 112244
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  and mostly dry weather forecasted through next week.
- 15-30% chance for light showers across western Missouri and
  extreme southeast Kansas Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Current water vapor imagery depicts a bulging ridge across the
central CONUS with deep troughs across the coasts. At the
surface, a weak cold front is positioned just south and east of
the Missouri borders, with a developing warm front draped across
OK/KS/NE.
Above average temperatures continue this weekend:
After some fog and low clouds this morning following the cold
front passage, synoptic descent in the ridge is allowing skies
to clear this afternoon with highs on track to reach the middle
70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight are expected to be cool in the
eastern Ozarks with temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Along and west of Highway 65, lows will be more mild in the 50s
to lower 60s.
With the ridge continuing eastward as the deep trough traverses
the Rocky Mountains, heights will build and rise across our
area. This will increase high temperatures Sunday to the lower
to middle 80s. Additionally, the trough will force a deep
surface low pressure system in ND and Canada, tightening the
surface pressure gradient across the Plains. This will create
breezy southerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
possible, especially west of Highway 65. The greater
temperatures and faster wind speeds may bring afternoon relative
humidity values along and west of Highway 65 down to the 35-45%
range. This may introduce a very minor and localized fire
weather risk in this area.
15-30% chance for light showers Sunday night into Monday:
As the shortwave trough lifts into Canada, the jet stream and
attending baroclinic zone/cold front will setup along a line
from the OK/TX panhandles, through east KS and northwest MO,
then up into the northern Great Lakes. Positive vorticity
advection within the jet stream across the front should force
some precipitation along the front. Due to a relatively drier
airmass ahead of the front, instability is progged to be very
low. SREF gives only a 10-30% chance of >50 J/kg MUCAPE.
Therefore, precipitation has a very low chance of thunder and is
expected to be showery and rather light due to weak synoptic
support ahead of the front in west MO and extreme southeast KS.
These 15-30% chances will occur Sunday night through Monday
early afternoon before upper-level heights begin to rise again
late Monday, diminishing any lift along the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather next week:
The aforementioned ridge is forecast to continue to build and
hold strong across the south-central CONUS, allowing for above
average temperatures to continue through next week. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s are expected through Friday with lows in
the middle 50s to lower 60s. There is currently high confidence
in these temperatures with NBM spreads very small due to good
agreement in the building of the mid- and upper-level ridge.
Monitoring potential system next weekend:
Just outside of the 7-day forecast (Friday night and onward),
the next big system looks to traverse the area. Global ensemble
cluster analysis is in agreement with a potent trough/shortwave
moving through the area, but there is a good deal of differences
on exact timing. With that said, there are currently 30-50%
chances for rain next Saturday into Sunday (15-30% Friday night
and Monday due to early/later timing differences).
A look at deterministic members shows the potential for
the synoptic pattern to support severe weather. The trough would
need to move through our area and line up with peak
heating/instability for this potential to be realized and since
timing is the main uncertainty, not much can be said towards
that. But, this is meant to be an early heads up that the
potential is there if timing lines up. GEFS and ECMWF AI severe
guidance does show 5% over our area for the period, and SPC
mentions the Ozarks in the 3-8 Day Outlook. We will continue to
monitor trends, but uncertainty is currently too high to include
in the key messages.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period. East-southeast winds will
increase after 12Z and become increasingly gusty after 18Z,
particularly across far western Missouri where gusts near 20 kt
will be possible.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Didio

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion