Brushy Mountain Trail Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

105
FXUS61 KRNK 111734
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
134 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system tracking along the Atlantic coastline
will spread rain east of the Blue Ridge tonight into Sunday
night before it shifts further north. A dry front tracks across
from the northwest Tuesday followed by high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Rain chances increase tonight into Sunday east of the Blue
Ridge.
Low pressure off the southeast coastline slowly moves north
along the NC coast Sunday. With onshore flow between the high
over New England and the low off the coast, expect increasing
clouds into much of the area tonight, with models at least
showing light rain making it as far west as the foothills,
though again meager amounts overall, with possible some quarter
inch amounts in a few spots, possibly toward a half inch over
the Piedmont. With the clouds arriving tonight temps will be
milder in the 50s for most, with some 40s across the Alleghanys
into the NC/TN mountains. Looking at 60s for highs for most of
the area Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
1) Coastal low to bring residual rain for areas east of the Blue
Ridge Sunday night.
2) Dry cold front to pass through by mid-next week.
A coastal low pressure system will continue its way north up the Mid-
Atlantic and head into the Atlantic Ocean by mid-next week. The
center of this storm is likely to stay along the coastline as its
upper level component merges with a cutoff low before heading
eastward. The storm will be just westward enough to bring gusty
winds Sunday night into Monday, mostly east of the Blue Ridge. Wind
gusts are likely to be between 20-25 mph with ridgetops receiving
gusts of up to 30 mph. The ridgetop wind gusts are a rough estimate
as 850mb winds vary by models. Precipitation is possible on Monday
for areas along and east of the Blue Ridge, with higher chances the
more east you go. Rainfall totals for the duration of this storm
have trended down between 0.25-0.50 inches, but isolated
upslope rain could result in up to one inch of precipitation.
Cloud cover should dissipate as the coastal low moves away from
the area.
The 500mb ridge centered over the Lone Star State is still on track
to bring higher heights and above normal temperatures for the
region. Highs are likely to be in the 60s and 70s and lows in the
40s and 50s. A cold front is forecast to move through the area by
mid-next week, followed by higher pressure. Winds may pick up
briefly as it passes through but are not expected to be as strong as
the coastal low`s winds. The cold front, however, will bring wind
gusts of 10-15 mph to the entire area. Mostly stable conditions will
prevent any precipitation with this frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) Warm trend continues as a frontal system approaches by next
weekend.
With a cold front fully through by next mid-week, higher pressure is
expected to follow. This surface high will get squished by two
surface lows, one to its west over the northern Great Plains and
another over the Atlantic (the coastal low). The surface high`s
influence will still be over the Mid-Atlantic and keep the weather
calm for the latter half of next week. Around the same time, the
ridge centered over Texas begins to move eastward with its axis
vertically aligned between the Deep South and the Great Lakes.
The ridge will keep mid-level heights relatively high and
maintain an overall warm trend for the region. By next weekend,
however, a potent mid-level trough will take a frontal system
towards our region. Model guidance is surprisingly in agreement
of this weather pattern one week out so this will be monitored
for future updates and potential impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...
Mainly VFR this afternoon into this evening, though some MVFR
cigs may drift over DAN, possibly LYH. Appears low clouds arrive
later tonight after 06z, in the DAN/LYH area reaching ROA/BCB
soon thereafter, with sub 1kft cigs likely heading toward
10-14z. LWB/BLF may also see some MVFR cigs by 12z, but since
clouds will become more widespread have less confidence on fog
affecting the terminals so will bump LWB to 2sm instead of 1/4sm
late tonight.
Any rain will mainly be east of ROA/BCB Sunday through 18z.
Vsbys overall will be VFR, but could drop to MVFR at DAN/LYH in
rain after 12z Sun.
Winds are expected to remain from a northeasterly to easterly
direction through the period. Speeds will generally be in the 5
to 10 knot range...gusty at times especially at LYH/DAN/ROA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Rain continues through Sunday night, with the greatest chances
east of the Blue Ridge, which will bring sub VFR ceilings and
visibilities, as a low pressure system moves along the coast,
and gusty winds are possible into Monday. Drier weather returns
for next week, so VFR outside of any late night fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AS/SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...SH/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion