Buckingham, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

380
FXUS61 KRNK 201643
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1243 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Will see some increase in clouds today as a backdoor front
tracks across the area. With limited moisture, expect only
spotty showers and storms mainly in the mountains. The front
works back north Sunday as high pressure works back in. Low
pressure over the central U.S. slowly tracks east toward the
Appalachians by the middle to late part of next week increasing
our chances for showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
1) A few showers/storms possible this afternoon in the mountains
and perhaps toward Lynchburg.
A weak backdoor front will track south this afternoon and
situated over the NC/VA border this evening before retreating
north Sunday. Two smaller upper level disturbances, one over
northern VA and the other in the TN Valley may bring enough lift
to trigger a few showers/storms mainly north of I-64 this
afternoon/evening and across the southwest VA/southeast WV
mountains and possibly the NRV. Overall coverage is spotty.
Temperature were running warmer than previous forecast so bumped
highs up a couple degrees mainly along/east of the Blue Ridge,
so may see places like Danville/South Boston/Yanceyville
approach 90. Any cloud cover or showers will keep it cooler in
the mountains but still looking at mid or upper 70s in the
higher ridges.
Tonight, cloud cover and a few areas of spotty rain linger in
the wedge across the Blue Ridge before dissipating late tonight.
Cloud cover will likely stay socked in north of U.S. 460 into
Sunday morning, then clearing Sunday afternoon, as the front
retreats north. With increasing moisture, lows tonight will
range from the mid to upper 50s west to lower 60s east.
Given potential slow erosion of clouds Sunday, have highs cooler
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with some lower to mid 70s in the
mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Message:
1) Rain over the mountains begins the workweek
For Monday, the first in a series of shortwaves will transit
broad upper troughing, bringing weak, largely terrain driven
rain showers to the western half of the CWA. This will continue
on Tuesday as well.
Meanwhile, one of these waves further upstream will evolve into a
cutoff low in the plains, with another separate low also forming in
southern Canada. The deepening troughing due to these lows will
enhance rain chances later on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...
Key Messages:
1) Interesting system over the plains will eventually move east
bringing widespread rain late in the week
The set of upper lows mentioned in the previous portion of the
forecast discussion will circle each other in an example of the
Fujiwhara effect. This will hold the larger area of low pressure in
and around the southern plains and Midwest for a couple of days. As
the lows fuse together, the effect of the stronger combined low will
encourage frontogenesis further east in the OH Valley. The timeline
for this to occur is unclear, though it seems likely this front
would impact southwest VA sometime Thursday or Friday, potentially
bringing the most widespread measurable rain to the region since
quite some time. One wouldn`t venture so far as to use the term
"drought breaker", especially this far out in the forecast, but
there is good confidence in a beneficial rain for areas that have
seen little rain this September.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions expected through well past sunset. Showers that
form will be spotty and not seeing any TAFS yet to get close to
having a shower, but will amend as needed. "Best" chance will be
around LWB Cigs look to lower to LIFR/IFR for most sites later
tonight into Sunday morning along with possible MVFR/IFR vsbys.
Exception may be BLF with VFR.
Should see a gradual improvement to VFR between 14-17z Sunday.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
VFR into early next week, aside from any late night fog at
mainly LWB. Low pressure system may bring us better chances for
showers by the middle of next week with potential sub-VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion