Buellton California Weather Forecast Discussion

323
FXUS66 KLOX 072108
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
208 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...07/121 PM.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue through
the week with temperatures near to slightly below normal. There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday across
Los Angeles County.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...07/207 PM.
A couple of quiet weather days today and Wednesday with the usual
marine layer stratus covering most coast and valleys during the
night and morning hours. Temperatures will be near to slightly
below normal.
The primary focus for the short term is the Thu/Fri time frame
when the remnants of Priscilla move into the area. We`re just
starting to get a peak at the higher res models now as they reach
into Thursday into early Friday and they are indicating chances
for some convection from Priscilla`s outer bands across LA County
and the adjacent coastal waters. This could happen as early as
Thursday morning based on the latest hi res models. This likely
would not be accompanied by much rainfall, at least initially, as
most of the moisture at this point would be very high based and
cells would be moving at pretty good clip. Still a lot of
uncertainty with this though as a lot will depend on the ultimate
track of Priscilla as it moves up the coast and even a small wag
to the east could shift all the showers and storms east of LA
County. For now the forecast calls for a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms Thursday into early Friday in LA County.
West and north of LA County conditions are expected to be fairly
typical but with some warming and increasing humidity as PW`s
increase to around 1.5" south of Pt Conception. Can`t completely
rule out shower/storm chances as far west as Ventura County but
that would be below 10% for now since Priscilla is expected to be
pushed to the east due to the presence of the trough over
northern and Central California.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/204 PM.
Weather conditions should quickly return to normal Saturday
through Monday as Priscilla remnants are safely to the east. It
may take a day or two for the marine layer to redevelop south of
Pt Conception, but otherwise pleasant conditions expected area-
wide with highs near to slightly below normal (mostly 70s to
lower 80s) and no signs of any significant winds during the
period.
There are indications on the longer range models that another cold
upper low will be dropping out of Canada and the Pac NW Tuesday
into Wednesday with some rain chances. However, as with the
tropical system there remains a lot of uncertainty with the track,
with some models way too far inland with it to bring any precip
locally. Currently about 30-40% of the solutions collectively
show at least some rain during that time.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1748Z.
At 1642Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2900 feet with a temperature of 21 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).
Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. VFR transitions could be
off by +/- 90 minutes. Return of low clouds this evening could be
off by +/- 2 hours.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance CIGs do
not clear or scatter briefly, before returning around 00Z Wed -
(+/- 2 hours). Subsequent clearing time should also be accurate
within +/- 2 hours from current forecast. No significant east wind
component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival time of likely IFR
CIGs may be off by +/- 2 hours. Likely chance of LIFR CIGs at
times through 15Z Wed.
&&
.MARINE...07/150 PM.
Across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast
conditions are likely to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
criteria through Thursday, with increasing winds to near or above
SCA level winds possible by Friday, generally south of Point
Conception. For the weekend, SCA winds are likely to become
widespread, with a 30% chance of GALES south of Point Conception
on Saturday. Seas are likely to become choppy & significant wave
heights will flirt with SCA criteria during this time.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions should
generally remain below SCA criteria through mid week. Isolated
gusts approaching SCA levels are possible this evening and
Wednesday evening near Point Dume and the San Pedro Channel.
There is a moderate chance for SCA level winds Friday & Saturday.
Highest across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel,
with a 20% chance of GALES on Saturday. Seas likely to become
choppy during this time.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion