Bueyeros New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

748
FXUS65 KABQ 102002
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
202 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
- A one-two punch of moisture associated with the remnants of
  Tropical Storm Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond will bring
  daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
  mainly along and west of the central mountain chain, into the
  middle of next week.
- Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos as well as low-
  lying areas will be a concern in areas with persistent rainfall.
  Elevated flows in main stem rivers are also possible. A Flood
  Watch is in effect for Farmington and the Four Corners area
  through Saturday afternoon.
- Below normal temperatures will be common across western NM
  through Sunday, but a back door cold front on Monday will cool
  temperatures below normal across central and eastern NM as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Moderate to occasionally heavy showers will continue to impact
northwest NM through the overnight hours as moisture associated
with Tropical Storm Priscilla continues to be drawn northward.
Instability will be lacking, thus thunderstorms will be few, but
not impossible. PWATs across northwest NM are currently around
1.1 inches, or greater than the 99.5 percentile for this time of
year. Therefore, even though we will not see the typical heavy
rainfall rates activity in thunderstorms, the showers that occur
will be exceptionally efficient at producing rainfall. Showers
that look otherwise benign on radar may actually produce heavy
rainfall. The main vort max associated with the then decayed
Priscilla will cross northwest NM early Saturday morning through
mid day. As this passes, a line or broken line of showers will
cross western and central NM from west to east. Then, there will
be additional showers that develops behind the main line. Again,
all of this should mostly be shower activity, but a few embedded
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially toward the afternoon
hours when there will be slightly more instability with daytime
heating. The majority of rainfall will be from the Central
Mountain Chain westward, though it`s likely some lighter rainfall
amounts will make it over to the eastern plains. Rainfall amounts
through Saturday afternoon should mostly be between 0.25" and
0.75" but a few areas should pick up a little over an inch with
the heavier or more persistent activity.
The Flood Watch in effect for the Northwest Plateau will remain as
is. Currently not confident enough to expand it given fast storm
motions, but later shifts may expand it if they can hone in on
areas that will receive persistent or repeated rounds of rainfall.
The cloud cover and precipitation will keep overnight low
temperatures warmer, both tonight and Saturday night, but daytime
high temperatures cooler. Can`t rule out some patchy fog overnight
again tonight, and again Saturday night after more widespread
rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
The moisture associated with what will be left of Priscilla will
have exited Saturday night as the deep low/trough near the PacNW
slides inland increasing west-southwest flow across northern NM.
This west-sw flow will bring drier air aloft across much of
northern NM on Sunday and will limit the amount of precipitation
for northern NM considerably. Meanwhile, moisture ahead of
Tropical Storm Raymond will be moving into southern NM, and
perhaps as far north and I-40. Precipitation should linger
Saturday night into Sunday morning across southern reaches of the
CWA. Of particular concern is the HRRR that depicts some heavier
rainfall along our southern CWA boundary stretching from Glenwood
to Ruidoso prior to sunrise Sunday. 90th+ PWATs will still be
common during this time in this area. Showers and thunderstorms
will re-develop/expand Sunday afternoon, especially near and south
of Highway 60. A Flood Watch may be needed for the Ruidoso area
burn scars.
The main vort max associated with TS Raymond looks to move across
southern NM early Monday, but all of the moisture associated with
Raymond across southern NM will be drawn northward through the day
Monday as the next west coast upper low dives southward,
increasing southwesterly flow over NM. Meanwhile at the surface, a
backdoor cold front will push through eastern NM Sunday night and
early Monday, before pushing through the gaps of the Central
Mountain Chain during the day. There will be drier air moving into
eastern NM behind the front, but the front itself will be a focus
for precipitation as it shifts westward, especially as the mid
level moisture associated with Raymond shifts northward. All this
to say that showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
expand across much of central and western NM Monday. With PWATs
above the 97th percentile, showers and any thunderstorms will
again be very efficient rainfall producers. Several models are
suggesting an increase in activity Monday night through Tuesday
morning as the final vort max/disturbance slides northeastward
across the state. The aforementioned upper low will begin to shift
eastward over the Great Basin on Tuesday, and modest lift ahead
of this feature will keep some showers and thunderstorms going
over NM through Tuesday afternoon.
The upper low will eject northeastward on Wednesday and enough
moisture will remain across NM for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, but coverage will start to dwindle. As the low
pulls farther away on Thursday, precipitation coverage should
decrease further.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Showers will continue across far northwest NM periodically through
the overnight hours, including at KFMN and to a lesser extent
KGUP. MVFR cigs/vsbys expected with heavier rainfall. A few
thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon or early this
evening as well. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere, though
southwesterly gusts between 25 and 30kt will persist across
northeast NM through the afternoon. A line or broken line of
showers will move from west to east across western and central NM
on Saturday morning. A few thunderstorms may also be embedded with
this activity. More widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Widespread wetting rains are expected through mid week, including
over the most drought-stricken areas of western NM, so fire
weather concerns are low. A few thunderstorms will impact the area
each day, however. Heaviest rainfall totals are expected along and
west of the Central Mountain Chain. Main wind concerns this week are
strong southwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph across northeast
NM Saturday afternoon and strong northerly winds behind a backdoor
cold front Sunday night and early Monday across northeast NM. The
front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain
Monday resulting in breezy to windy conditions below canyons in
the Rio Grande Valley.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  67  53  69 /  80  90  60  20
Dulce...........................  48  63  45  66 /  80 100  80  40
Cuba............................  51  65  48  66 /  30  90  60  50
Gallup..........................  55  65  49  67 /  70  80  60  40
El Morro........................  54  64  49  65 /  40  90  60  50
Grants..........................  54  67  49  68 /  30  90  50  50
Quemado.........................  55  69  50  67 /  20  80  50  50
Magdalena.......................  56  72  54  69 /  10  70  50  50
Datil...........................  52  69  49  66 /  20  80  60  50
Reserve.........................  52  74  51  71 /  20  80  70  50
Glenwood........................  57  78  54  73 /  30  80  80  60
Chama...........................  47  59  43  61 /  70  90  80  40
Los Alamos......................  54  64  52  66 /  20  90  60  40
Pecos...........................  50  67  48  67 /  10  70  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  49  64  48  65 /  10  60  40  20
Red River.......................  42  57  41  58 /  10  60  40  20
Angel Fire......................  36  64  38  63 /  10  50  30  20
Taos............................  50  68  47  68 /  10  60  40  20
Mora............................  45  67  46  67 /   5  50  40  20
Espanola........................  56  73  52  73 /  20  80  60  30
Santa Fe........................  54  68  52  66 /  10  80  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  54  70  50  69 /  10  80  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  73  57  71 /  10  80  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  74  56  73 /  10  80  50  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  75  55  74 /  10  80  50  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  73  56  73 /  10  80  50  30
Belen...........................  58  77  55  74 /  10  80  50  40
Bernalillo......................  59  75  55  73 /  10  80  60  30
Bosque Farms....................  57  75  53  73 /  10  80  50  40
Corrales........................  59  75  55  74 /  10  80  60  30
Los Lunas.......................  58  75  54  73 /  10  80  50  40
Placitas........................  58  72  54  69 /  10  80  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  60  74  56  73 /  10  80  60  30
Socorro.........................  61  78  58  71 /  10  60  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  70  51  66 /  10  80  60  40
Tijeras.........................  56  72  52  68 /  10  80  50  40
Edgewood........................  51  72  49  69 /  10  70  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  73  47  71 /  10  70  50  30
Clines Corners..................  50  67  50  67 /   5  60  40  20
Mountainair.....................  53  72  52  69 /  10  60  50  40
Gran Quivira....................  52  73  51  69 /  10  50  50  50
Carrizozo.......................  56  76  57  68 /   5  20  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  51  71  53  65 /   5  20  50  60
Capulin.........................  51  71  49  72 /   0  10   5   0
Raton...........................  49  75  47  77 /   5  20  10   0
Springer........................  51  76  49  77 /   0  20  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  50  68  50  71 /   5  40  40  10
Clayton.........................  57  78  57  82 /   0  10  10   0
Roy.............................  53  74  53  77 /   0  20  10   0
Conchas.........................  57  80  58  81 /   0  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  55  76  55  76 /   0  20  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  57  81  59  81 /   0   5  10  10
Clovis..........................  58  81  60  80 /   0   5   0  20
Portales........................  59  82  60  81 /   0   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  57  79  58  80 /   0   5  10  20
Roswell.........................  60  84  61  79 /   0   5  20  30
Picacho.........................  55  82  58  77 /   5  10  30  50
Elk.............................  51  79  55  73 /   0  10  40  60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NMZ201.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion