Buffalo, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

882
FXUS61 KPBZ 242159
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
559 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread precipitation chances today into tomorrow with a
passing trough. Drier conditions expected over the weekend with
a building ridge over the Ohio River Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms this evening
- Patchy fog possible
- Second wave of rain/storms expected after midnight
---------------------------------------------------------------
A broad trough remains in place from the central Great Lakes
into the Plains, with an upper low over the northern lower
peninsula of Michigan. An overall drier air mass has spread into
the region, mainly north of the Mason-Dixon Line. This has
reduced the earlier broad rain coverage, the last of which is
exiting areas north of I-80. More scattered shower activity
remains to the south, and this activity should continue through
the evening. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm to the
south of Pittsburgh, where the best of meager instability lies.
A brief window of patchy dense fog may develop late tonight,
mainly if conditions turn quiet and dry. However, if showers
linger, fog formation will be less likely. After midnight, rain
and isolated thunderstorms are likely to return south of
Pittsburgh as a strengthening low-level jet over the
Appalachians places our region in its left exit region,
providing sufficient vertical lift.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-  Heavy rainfall amounts expected south/southeast of
   Pittsburgh early Thursday
-  Shower chances taper off late Thursday as a cold front enters
----------------------------------------------------------------
Rain is expected to continue into early Thursday morning as the
trough gradually advances. The most intense rainfall rates are
likely between 6am and 10am, coinciding within the passage of a
a strong low-level jet across southern and central Pennsylvania.
The probability of an additional half inch of rain is high south
and east of Pittsburgh (above 70%), enhanced upsloping along the
ridges and the jet`s positions increases probabilities above 90%
for the Laurel Highlands, Preston, and Tucker county. Localized
swaths up to 50 miles wide could receive 1.5 to 2 inches of
rain, raising the potential for minor flooding in urban areas.
As the trough axis shifts east out of the Great Lakes,
precipitation chances will taper off from west to east early
Thursday afternoon. By late Thursday night, a few light showers
may form along the cold front moving eastern Ohio, but
increasing mid- and upper-level dry will keep coverage and
intensity isolated and light.
Above-average temperatures are anticipated during this period,
supported by deep southwest flow, extensive cloud cover, and
increasing low-level moisture keeping dew points in the low-60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Passing cold front Friday
- Isolated rain showers along the WV/PA ridges Saturday/Sunday
- A building ridge Sunday into Monday will increase chances of
  drier weather/above-average temperatures
------------------------------------------------------------------
By early Friday morning, the trough and its trailing cold front
are expected to move through the region. As winds shift from
southerly to northwesterly, precipitation chances should
gradually decrease with the arrival of mid-level dry air over
eastern Ohio and parts of western Pennsylvania. Any remaining
showers will likely be limited to the ridges, driven by upslope
flow, and near Lake Erie, supported by lake enhancement.
A weak cut-off low north of the Mississippi River Valley may
drift northeast over the weekend, bringing the potential for
isolated showers across the West Virginia ridges and the Laurel
Highlands. Long-range guidance indicates a 50-70% chance of
light rainfall (less than 0.10") across the ridges,
particularity in Tucker and Preston counties, decrease to below
30% outside of these areas.
A broad ridge across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley will
likely bring above-average temperatures and generally quiet
weather Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions have improved to a mix of MVFR and IFR this
afternoon, with the latter primarily occurring in and around
heavier pockets of precipitation. Expect this trend to continue
through the rest of the afternoon. NBM probabilities for thunder
have decreased and now suggest the best chances (20-30%) this
afternoon and evening will be to the northwest of PIT/AGC.
The bulk of the rain moves out late this evening, followed by
widespread IFR/LIFR conditions overnight as the near-surface
layer remains saturated and winds will be light. Overall
confidence in these restrictions occurring is high, particularly
across lowland areas (including all terminals except LBE/MGW).
However, there is still some uncertainty regarding whether
restrictions will manifest predominantly as low stratus or fog.
Most likely, there will be some mix of the two.
Another round of rain moves into the area from the southwest
during pre-dawn hours Thursday. The best chances for heavier
rates will be focused farther east than today, roughly along
and east of a HLG-PIT-FKL line. Rain may initially help lift
pockets of LIFR fog and stratus, but IFR conditions are expected
ot prevail until rain begins to move out and gradual/modest
improvement occurs mid to late morning.
.OUTLOOK....
The upper trough axis finally shifts east of the region Thursday.
VFR conditions return on Friday and there is increasing
confidence in another stretch of drier weather with longer
intervals of VFR continuing through the weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/CL
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion