Burdick, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

915
FXUS63 KTOP 212257
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
557 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms possible (20-30%) through early evening. A
  few severe storms with hail and wind could occur.
- Thunderstorm chance return Monday night with severe weather
  possible.
- Areas of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday then
  dry and mild conditions likely Wednesday night through the
  weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
High-based showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over eastern
Kansas early this afternoon with weak MCV and upper wave moving
through. Some better clearing has occurred in southern portions of
Kansas with temperatures nearing 80 degrees and dewpoints in the mid
60s. Though shear is weak, instability may approach 1500 J/kg over
the next few hours and allow for convection to form. Recent HRRR
runs have this as far west as Herington but this seems too far west
given the upper wave`s movement. Anything severe looks to be brief
based on shear and CAPE values, but veering winds with height
could support brief marginally-severe, with the threat ending
around sunset with weak mid-level lapse rates. Tonight into
Monday continue to show little concern though can`t rule out
some fog with light winds and a moist boundary layer however
10-20 knots of flow at 850 and 925 mb and some mid cloud should
help keep this in check.
Thunderstorm activity upstream will be the main challenge Monday
night. A few areas of formation are possible upstream, namely
to the north in northeast Nebraska near a weak boundary and to the
west to southwest in southwest Kansas as a minor upper wave is
ejected east of a main low digging southeast out of the northern
Rockies. Enough low-level flow and instability should be available to
drive these systems and may impact the local area. Timing from
recent CAMs suggest this would be after dark, likely after midnight.
Hail and wind would be possible with this activity, though there is
a real possibility severe weather stays north and south of the local
area. Showers and storms should increase area-wide Tuesday as the
upper low nears and surface low pressure moves east along the
KS/OK border which should keep the local area in the cold sector
during the afternoon and evening. More rain and possible storms
are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low passes
through, but there are not strong indications of heavy rain
Monday night through Wednesday with the latest NBM and LREF
having the chances for over and inch in any 6-hour period of 20
percent or less.
Though there remain to be some differences on timing, the wave
should exit east Wednesday night into Thursday for drying
conditions. A blocking regime takes hold into the weekend bringing
more benign conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The forecast should remain mostly VFR through the period. The
primary time frame of concern for aviation comes into the
overnight and early morning period when calm winds and clearing
skies may allow for sufficient radiational cooling to take
place over a several hour period to allow for patchy fog to
form. The depth and coverage of any fog remain in question so
have gone with mention of MIFG at this time from around 09-12Z
which appears to be the most likely time frame for any fog to
form. Mixing tomorrow appears limited which will allow for a
deck of clouds to remain SCT under warmer temperatures aloft so
do expect some lower level clouds to reform generally after
sunrise.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion