Burns Flat, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

413
FXUS64 KOUN 051747
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Strong cold front passage today with much cooler temperatures
   behind it.
- Severe storms possible this evening/tonight along and south of
   the cold front near the Red River.
- Cooler, below average temperatures this weekend into early
   next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Although northerly winds have currently overspread much of the
area, the synoptic cold front is just north of I-40. This colder
and drier air will continue to move across the area today. Weak
showers will continue along this boundary with light accumulations
expected. Further to the south along the Red River, a low chance
of severe weather will exist this afternoon and evening along and
ahead of the aforementioned boundary. The main hazards with the
strongest storms will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Bunker
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Fall-like temperatures are expected this weekend behind the
aforementioned cold front. Rain chances will exit to the south in
the morning and skies will clear by the afternoon. Afternoon highs
will generally only be in the mid 70s across most of the area.
Mostly clear skies will give way to overnight lows dipping down
into the mid to upper 50s.
On Sunday, mid-level heights will rise as will the temperatures
through the day. Won`t be too much different than Saturday, but
highs will generally be in the upper 70s, with overnight lows in
the low 60s by early Monday morning. With surface winds shifting
back to the ESE, some upslope flow thunderstorms along the Texas
Panhandle are possible Sunday afternoon. There is a low chance
that this activity reaches far southwestern Oklahoma and western
north Texas by the evening hours. Still have added low rain
chances to account for this possibility.
Bunker
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The main story for the long term period looks to be a gradual return
to drier and closer-to-normal conditions next week. The biggest
reason for the pattern shift is that (finally!) the Great Lakes
trough looks to get kicked out by a more active wave packet on
Monday and Tuesday. This will allow shortwave ridging to dominate
the Plains by the middle of the week. In a sign that the seasonal
transition really is upon us, guidance shows that ridge maxing out
at 588-591 dam even though it looks plenty amped. The one window for
storm chances that is apparent to us at this range is early Monday -
a northwest flow wave is showing on the GFS/NAM in advance of the
ridge. This could set off a round of upslope convection and increase
thunderstorm chances in our northwestern counties especially.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A cold front has pushed across all TAF sites with the exception of
DUA, but this should occur shortly.  Light rain and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible, especially across northern
Oklahoma this afternoon. Chances of elevated thunderstorms will
increase across far southern Oklahoma by late afternoon and early
evening.
Ceilings are mainly VFR, but MVFR ceilings will remain possible
across central and southern Oklahoma. Drier air will continue to
filter into southern Oklahoma and northern Texas this afternoon
and evening. This will likely help with higher ceiling heights, at
least through the evening hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  74  58  78 /  30  10   0  10
Hobart OK         55  77  60  82 /  30  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  59  79  63  83 /  40  10  10  10
Gage OK           51  73  57  79 /  30  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     52  76  55  80 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         62  78  64  82 /  60  20  10  10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion