Burwell, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

028
FXUS63 KLBF 080514
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1214 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few thunderstorms are possible across far southwest
  Nebraska tonight, with a few strong storms potentially
  producing hail and strong winds.
- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday and
  Tuesday for areas west of Highway 83.
- Better precipitation chances return mid week, with near daily
  precipitation chances Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A stationary front is located east of the Front Range this
afternoon, with a few showers and thunderstorms developing along the
front in the higher terrain. Daytime heating has allowed for some
building of instability across the region, with generally around
1,500 J/kg of surface based CAPE across western Nebraska. However,
LCLs remain fairly high, limiting the amount of CAPE storms are able
to ingest. Deep layer shear is fairly marginal, generally under 30
knots across the region, with weak northwest flow. As storms form
through the rest of the afternoon, the northwesterly flow should
continue to allow storms to track to the southeast, clipping
portions of far southwestern Nebraska. If a few of the stronger
cells can take advantage of the available CAPE, then there is a
small risk for hail development and strong, gusty winds.
Precipitation chances quickly wind down after midnight, leaving a
calm overnight period with lows in the mid 50s.
An upper level ridge in the northern jet stream is tracks across
Canada tomorrow, as well as a ridge in the southern jet stream.
However, the southern jet does introduce a shortwave across northern
Nebraska. This shortwave will support a low pressure system to track
across South Dakota, introducing a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms east of Highway 83 on Monday. The better precipitation
chances are expected further east of the region, however, isolated
showers and thunderstorms may develop late afternoon and track out of
the region by late evening. The upper level flow, however, also
introduces the potential for additional wildfire smoke to track
across portions of the forecast region, so those sensitive to smoke
may want to take precautions tomorrow.
The ridging pattern also continues to bring warming temperatures
across the region. Temperatures have continued to trend slightly
warmer, with areas across western Nebraska trending to the upper 80s
and some suggestion of low 90s in a few areas. The heat will
contribute to lower humidity values the next two days, bringing the
potential for elevated fire weather concerns Monday and Tuesday for
areas along and west of Highway 83. Both afternoons bring minimum
humidity values around 20 to 30 percent. Monday brings northwesterly
winds with gusts up to 20 mph, with Tuesday bringing southeasterly
winds with gusts up to 20 mph.
Tuesday evening, a deepening low across eastern Colorado introduces
a slight chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of
western Nebraska. However, any developing showers are expected to be
short lived, with any precipitation out of the area after midnight.
Overnight lows drop into the mid 50s to low 60s across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As the trough in the southern jet continues tracking east by mid
week, divergence aloft will support a fairly active surface pattern.
A series of low pressure systems and fronts brings near daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, with
slight chances of precipitation this upcoming weekend. At this time,
the potential for severe weather is uncertain, so will continue to
monitor forecast trends over the next few days. With the upper level
pattern, we will also see temperatures remain on the warmer side the
rest of this week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected to
remain through at least Friday. This time of year, we normally see
highs in the low 80s, so this forecast would remain warmer than
average.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact far
southwest Nebraska through early Monday morning, with brief MVFR
visibilities possible. Patchy fog also remains possible early
Monday morning across southwest Nebraska, with locally MVFR
visibilities.
Wildfire smoke is then expected to impact areas north of
Interstate 80 Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence in any
MVFR visibilities remains low for now.
Winds remain southerly through Monday afternoon, at 10 to 15kts.
A weak front then begins to push into the Sandhills by Monday
evening, with a wind shift from south to west-northwest
expected.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion