Butler Library New York Weather Forecast Discussion

399
FXUS61 KOKX 142219
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
619 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic will drift farther away
through tonight. A cold front will pass through on Wednesday, with
high pressure in control through the weekend. A cold front will
move through Sunday night into Monday, with weak high pressure
returning on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Isentropic lift and low level omega will combine with low level
moisture for areas of drizzle and/or light rain mainly for
eastern and coastal areas. The lift then exits south overnight
with dry conditions and diminishing cloud cover and winds.
NBM was used for low temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front approaches in the morning, then shifts through the
forecast area during the afternoon. No rainfall with its
passage as moisture will be lacking. The cold advection should
help kick up wind gusts by late in the day into the night. Winds
probably do not decouple late Wednesday night, so while cold
advection will still be ongoing at that time, frost is not
anticipated for those northernmost zones that are expected to
have temperatures fall into the mid 30s. Low temperatures across
the rest of the area will be mostly in the upper 30s to mid
40s.
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the NW Thursday
into Thursday night. Continued dry weather for the period with
below normal temperatures. The pressure gradient should weaken
enough for light to calm winds over western areas of the
forecast area, so with the chilly air mass in place, some frost
may form for areas NW of the city late Thursday night. Could
eventually need a frost advisory for at least Orange County as
frost/freeze headlines would be issued for events up through the
end of the month.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry conditions will prevail through most of the weekend. It
  will remain somewhat breezy on Fri due to the pressure
  gradient between high pressure building from west and
  strengthening low pressure meandering out over the open
  Atlantic.
* Below normal temperatures will continue on Friday with highs
  only in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temps Fri night could fall
  to 35-40 inland and into 40s elsewhere.
* Milder weather returns this weekend as a warm front passes to
  the north and vertically stacked high pressure builds over
  and east of the area. Temperatures should reach 65-70 on Sat
  and 70-75 on Sunday.
* A cold front and associated closed low aloft will bring
  showers mainly Sunday night into Monday. NBM onto the idea
  that the slower 12Z GFS vs faster 00Z ECMWF solution may pan
  out during this time frame. Latest ECMWF has slowed down as
  well, showing the closed low taking on a negative tilt with
  sfc low pressure developing along the front and remaining to
  the west. High temps Mon/Tue will be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure over the western Atlantic drifts farther east
through tonight as high pressure remains to the northwest. A
cold front passes through Wednesday afternoon.
MVFR ceilings persist into early this evening until 00Z-01Z,
possibly an hour or two later. Once ceilings improve to VFR,
conditions remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast
period.
Winds will remain northerly through the forecast with occasional
gusts to around 20 kt at the NYC metro terminals and northwest,
with more frequent gusts 20-25 kt to the east. Gusts end toward
sunset with winds diminishing to under 10 kt. Winds increase
during Wednesday, and become gusty, backing a little toward NNW
during the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of VFR this evening may be off an hour or two.
Amendments possible for varying flight categories into this
evening.
Wind gusts will likely be more occasional this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday: VFR. NNW winds G15-25kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR. Late day showers possible Sunday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Changes: SCA cancelled for NY Harbor, the western Sound, and
the Long Island south shore bays, with gusts under 25 kt and
seas at the harbor entrance mostly below 5 ft. Elsewhere, some
gusts up to 25 kt still possible on the ern Sound/bays into this
evening.
For the ocean waters: SCA remains in effect through Wed night
as seas remain elevated through the period. Winds diminish into
Wed morning, but then increase again behind the passage of a
cold front in the afternoon. Will likely need to eventually
extend the advisory there into Thu night or Fri morning.
Then quiet cond should last until Sunday afternoon/night, when
S flow may gust up to 25 kt and seas build to 5-6 ft on the
ocean ahead of a cold front.
For the non ocean water: There is a chance for gusts over 25 kt
again at some point late Wed afternoon, and more likely Wed
night into Thu. Guidance has trended a little weaker with winds,
so did not yet issue an advisory there.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have (finally) cancelled the last of the coastal headlines as
water levels remained below thresholds. Offshore flow and less
tidal piling then mitigate most flooding threats for at least
the next few days.
With N flow relaxing on Fri, a couple of the more vulnerable
spots along the Fairfield CT coastline and along the back bays
of S Nassau/SW Suffolk south may get close to minor thresholds,
but confidence in this is low. With S flow and seas increasing
on Sunday ahead of a cold front, there is medium confidence
that tidal piling and elevated astronomical tides associated
with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some spotty minor
coastal flooding in these same areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-
     340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion