Buyck Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

204
FXUS63 KDLH 100532
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return Sunday and Sunday night.
- Gusty northwest winds will occur today gusting 20-30 mph.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching cool front will
broaden the area of cloud cover over northern Minnesota through
this evening. Showers are still expected to develop this
afternoon and spread eastward tonight. Radar echoes developed
over the past half hour east of Fargo and north of International
Falls per regional radar mosaics. CAMs appeared to be
consistently a little slow with the onset of precipitation. That
trend continues with the latest RAP/HRRR runs. The 18Z HRRR at
22Z appears to be similar to what we`re seeing in the mosaics.
Look for precipitation to fill in over the next few hours.
A compact and deep upper-level trough with a closed 300 mb low
at the center will propagate southeastward tonight. The cold
front and weak surface low will move into Minnesota around
10.00Z and transit the Northland overnight into Friday morning.
The rapid progression of the trough and surface features will
limit the precipitation chances. Ridging aloft will begin to
develop Friday morning over northern Minnesota and adjacent
areas of Manitoba and Ontario. The surge of cold air behind the
front will be short lived. Temps will be in the middle and upper
50s over most of the Northland with a narrow ribbon of low 60s
from near Brainerd east into the St. Croix River Valley. Winds
may be gusty again, mainly during the morning hours, due to deep
boundary layer mixing in the cold air advection behind the
front.
Southerly winds will return for Saturday which will usher in
slightly warmer temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. The upper-
level ridge will propagate eastward across the Upper Midwest
through Sunday. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms return to
the picture for Sunday and Sunday night due to isentropic lift
over Minnesota. Farther west a seasonably strong low pressure
system will move northeastward over western North Dakota into
the Canadian Prairies. That system will push another cold front
across the Northland Sunday night and Monday. While the
potential for widespread "warm sector" showers will be present,
any thunderstorm chances will likely need the additional forcing
for ascent of the cold front.
Temperatures trend a little cooler Monday through next
Thursday, although pretty close to normal. Highs will be in the
low to upper 50s. While the forecast becomes a bit muddled for
the second half of next week, cluster analysis points to rain
chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Southwest winds tonight will shift westerly 08-11Z and then
further shift to northwesterly by sunrise today as an area of
cold air advects into the region. Along with that wind shift
expect a 6 hour period of gusty 20-30 knot winds this morning to
early afternoon. Cook County in the Arrowhead may see a few
gusts to 35 knots today, along with some morning and afternoon
widely scattered rain showers. The northwest Wisconsin lake
effect belt terminals near the WI/UP stateline also has this
daytime slight chance of rain showers today. High pressure
moving in this afternoon and evening quickly decreases wind
speeds by late afternoon today for light and variable Friday
night.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025
Southerly winds over western Lake Superior and northeast winds
over the southwest arm of Lake Superior late this afternoon will
veer south-southwesterly tonight and will strengthen. Winds and
waves will become hazardous to smaller vessels near Grand
Portage initially and then along the South Shore. A cold front
will propagate east over the waters tonight and Friday morning
which will veer winds northwesterly. There may be a 2 to 6 hour
lull in the stronger wind gusts as the front moves through.
Winds will strengthen again behind the front and will become
hazardous for small craft. There is a 30% chance of gales over
western Lake Superior during the day Friday. We added the North
Shore waters to the Small Craft Advisory for 4 AM to 4 PM
Friday. We also extended the existing advisory until 11.03Z (10
PM Friday evening). The period of strong winds will be
relatively short lived as high pressure will build into the
region quickly Friday evening. Gusty winds return Sunday and
additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140-145>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM CDT
     this afternoon for LSZ141>144.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Huyck

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion