Cactus, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

748
FXUS64 KAMA 051117
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
617 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
- The arrival of a cold front Friday morning will see temperatures
  cool and the Panhandles getting their first taste of fall with
  highs in the 60s to 70s.
- Chances of showers ahead of the cold front have increased with
  the early arrival of rain band from Tropical Storm Lorena.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored across the
  Panhandles, and especially the southern Texas Panhandle, this
  weekend into the start of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
As of late tonight latest satellite imagery was seeing the
fringes of Tropical Storm Lorena start to invade the Panhandles.
This earlier arrival has seen moisture across the Panhandles start
to increase with weak showers popping up here and there. Based
off the latest CAM analysis, this moisture is likely to continue
to funnel into the Panhandles during the overnight which will keep
these off and on weak showers present clear into sunrise. It will
be here that weather will get a bit more interesting as many
models are expecting the arrival of a backdoor cold front around
this time. If the excess moisture can stay in place, then it will
have a nice lifting mechanism in the form of the front to start
another round showers for the Panhandles. At this point a few of
the CAMs do have the front stalling over the Panhandles allowing
for off and on showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout the
day. However, confidence is not too high in this thought process
as it is very typical for fronts to sink much further south than
models predict. For now have chosen to keep POPs on the lower end
(10 to 20%). Otherwise the early arrival of the front will see
temperatures cool for the day with afternoon high temperatures
only projected to get into the mid 60s to low 70s.
Moving into the weekend will continue to see the building of the
ridge present over the Western United States. This continued
progression of the ridge will see the high shift just enough for
the Panhandles to be right back into a monsoonal. Looking at the
latest model run we continue to see the trend of good southerly to
southeasterly flow at the lower levels which will invite moisture
to transport out of the gulf. Add to this the continue flow will
be what is left of Tropical Storm Lorena, which will see PWAT
values rising well over the one inch mark once again for Saturday
afternoon. In turn, this influx of moisture will once again bring
chances of precipitation that afternoon. Where concern begin to
rise is Saturday night into Sunday. Presently, models are
expecting this to be the peak of the moisture as the main band of
Tropical Storm Lorena finally arrive in the Southern Great Plains.
Depending where this band ends up, PWAT values can easily rise
over the 1.5 inch mark and create heavy rainfall for this period.
As for the Panhandles, latest form the ensembles is in favor or
seeing activity for the with POPs ranging from 30 to 50%, but lack
the chance of seeing these higher rainfall rates.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Sunday will see the continuation of shower and thunderstorm
activity across the Panhandles as the both the moisture from the
gulf and remnants of Tropical Storm Lorena push into the Southern
Great Plains. These chances will begin to wane as we proceed
through the day with most models seeing the tropical storm
remnants exit by that night. Moving into Monday, model agreement
projects the present upper-level ridge starting to push off the
Western United States with arrival of a closed low to the Pacific
Northwest. This eastward exit of the the ridge and associated high
will see the Panhandles slowly lose its connection to the gulf
moisture with precipitation chances shifting more to the eastern
Panhandles for Monday and Tuesday. By the mid-week model agreement
gets a bit muddy as both the ECMWF and GFS struggle to decided on
the exact progression of the incoming closed low. For now guidance
and ensembles have taken a dry approach with precipitation chances
staying under 10% for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, look for
temperatures to warm once again with most of the week look at
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A weather system and associated cold front is passing across the
panhandles today impacting all terminals. The passage of the cold
front has shifted the winds to the north and made them gusty.
After the passage of the cold front a deck of low clouds is
expected to build into the area reducing conditions to MVFR for
KDHT and KGUY. Once this cloud deck set up it will take a long
time to lift assuming that it even manages to do that. Increasing
instability will allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to form
during the mid morning hours which can impact all terminals. For
KDHT and KAMA the rain will wane for the late morning hours with a
brief break. KGUY will most likely not see any breaks but
continued rain for the entire morning. Then for the afternoon KDHT
and KAMA will have a low to moderate chance of seeing further
rain showers and thunderstorms develop. It wont be till the early
evening that all the rain activity final abates for all terminals.
This will also coincide with the winds weakening and shifting to
the east as well.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion