Calderwood, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

032
FXUS64 KMRX 031638
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1238 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Dry weather can be expected through the weekend. Rain chances
  return middle of next week.
- Temperatures will hover near normal or just above normal through
  the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Surface high pressure remains across the region dominating our
weather through the weekend with upper-level ridging across the
Eastern CONUS. A wave of low pressure will remain across the Gulf
Coast with a cold front across the central plains through the
Great Lakes. Between these systems, we`ll remain dry with mostly
clear sky conditions into early next week. Temperatures remain
near or slightly warmer than normal.
A lot of questions remain regarding rainfall potential next week.
We expect the ridge to flatten and the cold front to move across
our region around the middle of next week. Ahead of this front,
low-level winds shift to the WSW/WNW with limited moisture
available for widespread precipitation. Whereas our best rain
chances are expected next week, at no point do precipitation
probabilities go above 50 percent. NBM histograms shows a
logarithmic distribution with a slight bimodal pattern to the
ensemble distribution. The most likely solution is for less than
one inch of QPF next week for most locations, but if we do get the
surge of tropical moisture into the Southern Appalachians, there
are low probabilities of 2 to 3+ inches of rainfall. Next week`s
forecast still has a lot of room to shift in a drier or wetter
direction.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions and light winds continue through the forecast
period at all sites. With dry air in place, fog probabilities are
low, with the primary TAF impact at TRI between 09z and 13z on
Saturday morning. For this reason, added a mention of vcfg to the
TRI TAF for early Saturday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  81  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  81  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              50  79  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion