Caledonia County Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS61 KBTV 140640
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
240 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will linger through this morning before tapering
off this afternoon as low pressure pulls eastward. Cool, breezy,
and dry conditions will prevail through much of the remainder
of the week. We trend warmer for the weekend, with our next
chance for widespread rain not arriving until early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...A few showers will continue to linger
across the region this morning, gradually tapering off as low
pressure continues to pull away from the coast. High temperatures
this afternoon will be fairly seasonable, generally in the upper 50s
and low 60s with some cloudy skies for much of the day. Overnight
lows tonight will generally be in the 30s and lower 40s. A cold
front will approach the region tonight, ushering in a much drier and
cooler airmass. Although this feature will be fairly moisture
starved, a few showers may be possible, especially across the higher
terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Greens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...Cooler and drier conditions are expected
for the middle of the week, as high pressure builds into the Great
Lakes, with brisk northerly prevailing across the region, with some
fire weather concerns possible with near critical conditions
possible. High temperatures on Wednesday will only climb into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. A weak shortwave looks to pass through,
although with such a dry airmass across the region this feature will
likely only bring some increased cloud cover. Winds will be breezy,
especially in the Champlain Valley where some channeling is
expected, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Minimum relative humidity
values will generally be be 35 to 45 percent. Winds will remain
elevated overnight, which will keep locations from radiating out
completely, but it will still be a chilly night with low
temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s, with temperatures in the
upper 30s near Lake Champlain. Thursday will feature breezy and dry
conditions once again, raising some fire weather concerns. Northerly
winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected, with minimum relative
humidity values between 30 and 40 percent. Temperatures on Thursday
will once again be on the cool side, climbing into the upper 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...Winds will remain brisk Thursday night,
but then weaken on Friday. The upper level flow becomes extremely
amplified in the long term portion of the forecast. On Friday a
large upper level ridge will build into the area, and we will also
have high pressure at the surface. By Friday night as the ridge
builds overhead, some vorticity energy will make it around the top
of the ridge and present possibility of some light rain showers.
Saturday is expected to be mainly dry as upper ridge begins to slide
east of our region. Next chance for showers will be introduced
Saturday night into Sunday as a surface front pushes across our
area. Upper level trough will trail behind the surface front a bit,
and as it moves across our area chance for precipitation will
continue into Monday. Flow will become favorable for some upslope
showers Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...All terminals mainly VFR and now
doubting that lower ceilings will develop and remain. Have
occasionally had terminals briefly drop down to MVFR ceilings,
and this will continue to be possible through 12z. Otherwise
winds are light. Still some widely scattered light rain showers
around, and this also is expected to continue to 12z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion