Caledonia, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

234
FXUS63 KMKX 291410
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
910 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into next weekend, with slightly
  cooler conditions near Lake Michigan.
- No rain expected through Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued 910 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Mostly clear skies prevail this morning across southern
Wisconsin. A narrow area of mid-level alto-cumulus is lingering
over portions of east-central and southeastern Wisconsin, and
will gradually dissipate through the rest of the morning.
Temperatures will warm quickly this afternoon, with highs in the
80s anticipated away from the Lake Michigan shoreline.
Quigley
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Today through Tuesday night:
High pressure will settle over the Lower Great Lakes today into
this evening, while an upper ridge builds from WI to Manitoba
and wrn Ontario. This will allow lgt sly winds and a return of
a weak warm front that is currently over IA and IL. As a result,
temps will warm into the middle 80s well inland from Lake MI
along with higher dewpoints than yesterday.
The slightly higher moisture content may result in patchy fog
development late tnt mainly north of Madison and Milwaukee and
also in the Lower WI River Valley. For Tuesday and Tuesday night,
a stronger high pressure area of 1033 MB will track from nrn
Ontario to wrn Quebec. This will enhance ely winds and weak cold
advection with high temps ranging from lower 70s at the lake and
lower 80s over south central WI. There may be just enough ely
flow and drier air to prevent fog formation Tue nt.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Wednesday through Sunday:
Dry weather expected through the rest of the work week as high
pressure remains dominant over southern Canada and the Great
Lakes Region. Though the longwave pattern in the upper-altitude
jet remains a high-amplitude ridge, a shorter-wavelength trough
rotates through the pattern mid week, working with a strengthening
south Canada high pressure system to enhance easterly flow and
create a slight lull in the heat (though still plenty above
seasonal norms) for mid week. Daytime highs around 80 degrees
flat expected for inland areas on Wednesday, with noticeably
cooler (low 70s) temperatures towards eastern Wisconsin due to the
east winds.
Wednesday`s scattered to broken high-altitude cloud cover erodes
into Thursday as the upper trough exits and flow aloft turns
anticyclonic. As such, we expect Thursday`s temperatures to rise
1 to 3 degrees. Temperatures continue to rise and surface winds
veer south (or even southwest) into Friday, with inland highs
climbing to the mid 80s. With synoptic flow partially
counteracting the lake breeze on Friday, heat will likely spread
further east towards the Milwaukee metro.
The earliest we could conceivably see any rainfall is this
upcoming weekend, but even then, it`s not a particularly healthy
signal amongst model guidance. The majority of jet dynamics remain
north and west of the region, leaving only slight rain chances to
contend with for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 910 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions prevail this morning at all southern Wisconsin
terminals, and are expected to continue through the rest of the
period. A pocket of mid-level clouds continues to linger over
portions of east-central and southeastern Wisconsin, and will be
accounted for in the 15Z updates at KMKE, KSBM, and KUES. Light
south to southwesterly winds will become established later this
morning. A lake breeze will develop later this afternoon, resulting
in an easterly wind shift at eastern aerodromes. Winds will become
light and variable once again overnight under mostly clear skies.
The light winds and clear skies may allow for additional fog
development tonight. Uncertainty regarding fog coverage & locations
has precluded any mentions in the 15Z update. Trends will be
monitored through this evening/tonight.
Quigley
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
High pressure of 30.2 inches will prevail over the Lower Great
Lakes today into this evening then weaken. A stronger high
pressure area of 30.5 inches will then settle along the Ontario
and Quebec border on Tuesday then move to New England by Thursday.
The first high will yield light and variable winds over the lake
today and tonight followed by light to modest northeast winds on
Tuesday. Modest east to southeast winds will then prevail for
Tuesday night through Thursday due to the stronger high pressure
area near New England. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as onshore winds causes building waves.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion