Calera, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

378
FXUS64 KOUN 220510
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Strong to severe storms are possible this evening and
   overnight to night with the greatest chances north of I-40. All
   hazards are possible; damaging wind gusts, large hail and a
   tornado.
- Storm chances continue Tuesday into Tuesday night across
   southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. Storms may
   become severe with large hail and damaging winds.
- A cold front will bring cooler near-normal temperatures by mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Areas of patchy to dense fog may develop early this morning across
western Oklahoma, including a stretch of I-40 from the TX state line
and eastward towards the western edge of Canadian County, with less
than 0.25 to 0.5 mile visibility possible. The fog may linger
through mid-morning before daytime heating dries the moist surface
layer. Today will feature the hottest temperatures in the forecast
and feel like a hot and muggy summer day with highs in the upper 80s
to 90s. Moist southerly surface flow will keep dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s across southern Oklahoma and into western
north Texas with heat indices approaching 100 to 105 degrees.
The next trough axis will be digging into the Northern Rockies this
afternoon with another low spinning in the Pacific, west of SoCal.
Additionally, an upper ridge will still be in place over Mexico. An
increasing mid-level jet streak of 30-40 knot westerly winds will
approach western Oklahoma this evening. Storms may develop early
this evening with plenty of instability, but despite warm surface
temperatures this afternoon there may be a slight capping inversion
in place to overcome, especially if low clouds hold on longer across
northern Oklahoma this morning and limit some of the daytime
heating. Should this occur, all hazards would be in play including
large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. A surface low
will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle with an increasing
southerly low-level jet late this evening of around 40-50 knots over
western Oklahoma and spreading eastward through the overnight hours.
Thus, low-level curvature and the potential for tornadoes will be
maximized near or after sunset with the increasing low-level jet.
These initial isolated storms will move due east with the westerly
steering flow aloft.
As the upper trough continues to dig south into the Central Rockies
tonight, the surface low will be pushed eastward and bring a cold
front through western Kansas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the front and quickly grow upscale into an mesoscale
convective system (MCS) as it approaches northern Oklahoma. These
storms are most likely expected to enter northern Oklahoma between
Midnight and 3 AM. The time window remains somewhat large due to
uncertainty in the frontal timing, which will be the driver for the
MCS. A bulk of the activity is likely to remain across the northern
half of Oklahoma as storms slide southeastward into eastern Oklahoma
by early Tuesday morning. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts
and large hail, but a tornado cannot be ruled out with the near 50-
knot 0-1 km shear ahead of the storms. Training storms and/or heavy
rainfall rates could lead to minor localized flooding concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A bulk of the convection will be to the east Tuesday morning as the
low-level jet spreads eastward. The cold front is progged to be
through at least the northwest third of Oklahoma by the afternoon
hours. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to 90s
ahead of the boundary. Behind the front, a cooler post-frontal
airmass will bring midday temperatures in the upper 70s. As the
front continues to push southeastward through the evening hours,
convection is expected to develop along the boundary. Timing of the
front will play a key role in where storms may develop with a slower
solution increasing storm chances as far north as the I-40 corridor.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary hazards.
The upper trough will be swinging through the Plains Tuesday night
with a 40-50 knot mid-level jet over Oklahoma, which will aid in
sustaining convection through Wednesday morning. Precipitation
chances will end by Wednesday evening as a cooler post-frontal
airmass fills in from the north with the 700-mb front. Near-normal
daytime temperatures are expected Wednesday with highs in the 70s to
lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Precipitation chances will decrease significantly Thursday through
the weekend with an Omega Block pattern slowly bringing a ridge over
the Plains. Southeasterly surface flow will keep temperatures near-
normal (80s) Thursday and Friday as the surface high spins to our
east. However, temperatures will creep a bit warmer (near or
slightly above average) by the weekend as the surface ridge
strengthens and the upper ridge passes over the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Overnight, most of the scattered showers and thunderstorms will
remain south and east of all TAF sites. Mid-level clouds should
continue to decrease across parts of central Oklahoma and western
north Texas. Good radiational cooling and a light wind will result
in areas of fog, perhaps dense. Will add some restriction to
visibility at most sites with CSM and WWR having the best
opportunity for dense fog. With heating, some low clouds will
develop with MVFR ceilings. By afternoon Monday, VFR conditions
are expected at all sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  74  86  65 /   0  30  50  30
Hobart OK         91  74  90  63 /   0  20  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  95  75  95  67 /   0  10  30  50
Gage OK           88  64  79  57 /   0  40  20  30
Ponca City OK     84  69  84  63 /   0  80  70  30
Durant OK         91  73  94  69 /  20  20  40  80
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...06

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion