Calypso, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

216
FXUS62 KMHX 072312
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
712 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes offshore tonight. High pressure will build
in from the north behind the front. A shortwave moves along a
stalled front offshore mid- week bringing heavy rain chances
along the coast. High pressure builds in again for the end of
the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1900 Sunday...Broad troughing pattern of the past several
days persists across the eastern CONUS. At the SFC, cold front
is located just over the coast and will be pushing offshore
through tonight. Behind the front, gusty northerly winds already
being observed with gusts up to 20-25 kt at times.
Convective precipitation threat has pretty much ended with just
light stratiform rain expected the rest of the evening. Shower
and storm coverage wanes tonight as front drifts further
offshore and expansive high pressure intrudes from the
northwest, ushering in a much drier airmass with Tds in the mid
50s inland, but still 60s along the water. Lows hover in the low
to mid 60s as winds stay up and cloud cover lingers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sun...Little change in sensible weather tomorrow as
front lingers offshore and high pressure continues to build into
the area, except with a bit more clearing across the coastal
plain while cloudier conditions linger along the coast. Ongoing
shower activity along the frontal boundary is unlikely to bleed
along the coast. Cooler and breezier with pinched pressure
gradient, with highs in the upper 70s and winds gusting up to 25
mph inland, 30 mph along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 4 PM Sunday...
Key Messages
- Cooler conditions late this weekend into next week
- Errant showers possible along the coast early next week as
   coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
Front stalls along the gulf stream to start the work week keeping
much of the precip offshore. Errant showers are possible
through early next week along the coast, originating from this
stalled front/coastal trough offshore as weak shortwaves move
through along it. NE flow behind the front as high pressure
builds in will bring a stretch of drier, and cooler conditions
inland through much of next week. Mid- week, a slightly stronger
shortwave looks to move through along the coastal trough. This
will bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast and
perhaps even areas inland. WPC has our coast in a marginal ERO
for Tuesday 12Z to Wednesday 12Z. After this, high pressure
builds in again as front remains stalled offshore. Deterministic
guidance (CMC, GFS) are trying to show a weak low forming along
this stalled front off the FL/GA/SC coast next weekend as a
deep positively tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to
tell what impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence
on the timing, track, and intensity of the low, if it even gets
resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 1900 Sunday...MVFR flight cats currently across the board
with CIGs < FL020. Convective precipitation threat has pretty
much come to an end with just light stratiform showers
persisting along the immediate coast, and this is expected to
continue to wane through the rest of the evening as front
pushes offshore. This TAF cycle, have held on to the lower CIGs
inland longer than previous cycle, but still forecasting MVFR
deck to shift Sward following the front after midnight,
plaguing mainly coastal terminals before scattering out by 12z.
Northeast winds persist overnight at around 10 kt, keeping fog
out of the forecast.
VFR conditions expected tomorrow with skies scattering out, but
gusty conditions continue with gusts to 20-25 kt at times in the
afternoon as pressure gradient is pinched between the front
offshore and high pressure building in from the northwest.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 PM Sunday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow may
result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain this
coming week. Tuesday into Wednesday rain chances with drops in
cig and vis pick up, highest along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...Cold front is currently stalled along the
Pamlico River eastward to Hatteras. North of the boundary,
gusty northerly winds already kicking in with gusts up to 20 kt
while to the south of the boundary flow remains at 5-10 kt.
Seas, for now, remain at 2-3 feet.
Front will continue to push across area waters tonight and stall
offshore tomorrow. Expansive high pressure will build into the
region from the northwest, and pressure gradient brings a
widespread increase of northeast winds up to 20-25 kt with gusts
up to 30 kt. A few odd Gale force gusts are possible across the
far outer waters, but occurrence is expected to be too isolated
to warrant an upgrade to headlines. Seas rise to 5-8 feet in the
stronger winds.
No headline changes were made from the previous forecast.
LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 4 PM Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to develop early
  next week
Moderate NNE flow post frontal flow increases to 20-25 kt
(gusting to at or above 30 kts) Mon and Tue. Seas will build to
4-8 ft Monday into Tuesday. Seas abate as winds ease late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with southern waters (Onslow Bay) first
to see sub 6ft seas as early as Tuesday night. Northern waters
(off of NOBX) may not see sub-6ft seas until mid to late day
Wednesday. Gale Watches were considered for coastal waters
south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound, but at this point
gusts of 34+ knots are not expected to be frequent enough.
Trends will have to be monitored, as even a 3-5kt uptick in fcst
winds will bring us to gale watch/warning criteria. Currently
HREF has a 20-40% chance of seeing gale force gusts late Monday
into Tuesday along and in proximity of the Gulf Stream.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
     evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion