Camp Tukabatchee Lake, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

920
FXUS64 KBMX 301746
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
- No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven
   days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to
   increase across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
GOES Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a low to mid level
cloud deck moving across the eastern half of the state. The upper
level pattern remains fairly active with a trough to our east and
west, a weak ridge to our north, and a couple of tropical system
off the east coast. Not expecting too much impactful weather
across Central Alabama in the short term. We will continue with a
low chance for showers and storms this afternoon and evening,
generally for our eastern areas, as a pocket of H85-H5 vorticity
rotates around the western periphery of a low over the Carolinas.
By Wednesday, Imelda is pushed out to sea as the series of upper
troughs in place over the CONUS begin to nudge east. This will
position a mid level ridge over the southeast. As a result, drier
air will filter in across the region. With that said, we will hold
onto some low end rain chances across our southern areas on Wednesday
as a weak mid to upper level low tracks along the northern Gulf
coast. Otherwise, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow
under mostly sunny skies.
95/Castillo
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week.
Unfortunately these prolonged dry conditions will likely lead to the
expansion of drought across Central Alabama. With that said, rain
chances do return by Sunday as a weak low moves inland across the
north Gulf coast. A healthy plume of moisture looks to accompany
this feature which will hopefully help alleviate some of our
ongoing drought conditions.
Temperatures throughout the long term remain fairly steady with
highs in the mid 80s and lows generally in the 60s. The exception
will be Friday morning as looks dip into the mid 50s as PWAts
briefly fall to near 0.6-0.7".
95/Castillo
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025
GOES satellite imagery reveals a low to mid level cloud deck
resulting in MVFR cigs at MGM/AUO/ASN early this afternoon.
Expecting VFR to return in the next couple of hours. Otherwise,
VFR and light winds prevails at all other terminals through this
TAF window. A few isolated showers/storms may develop this
afternoon but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF
at this time.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The area should remain mostly dry, with minRH values will fall
into the low to mid-30s by Wednesday. MinRHs in the mid 30 to low
40s are expected daily through the remainder of the work week.
Given the sharp east shift in the tropical trends, no real
moisture return is expected until next weekend, with only isolated
rain chances the next seven days or so. Because of this, drought
conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion possible
given the lack of rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  87  59  83 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    63  85  61  81 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  66  87  64  85 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  67  88  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      65  88  62  85 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      65  84  62  80 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  87  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        64  84  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95/Castillo
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion