Campfield Avenue Branch Library Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

513
FXUS61 KBOX 141933
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
333 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Any remaining showers taper off overnight. Gradual clearing
tonight into tomorrow with mild temperatures on Wednesday. An
unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery
conditions Thursday for most of Southern New England. However
ocean effect cloud cover, periods of rain showers and stronger
northerly breezes across the eastern Massachusetts coast.
Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more
unsettled as we move into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
330 PM Update
Key Messages:
* Light rain along the east coast persists into the evening
* Winds diminish overnight with any remaining showers tapering off
  after midnight
A couple more hours of rainfall over The South Shore, Cape, and
Islands into the afternoon as easterly flow and a 30 knot jet at 925
hPa continue to support steady light rain/drizzle. Elsewhere,
showers have come to an end, but extensive cloudiness remains in
place.
Overnight, the coastal low pressure system that has been producing
gusty northeast winds and steady light rain across eastern southern
New England finally pulls far enough away to bring an end to any
remaining showers. North/northwest flow persists overnight and
begins to usher cooler/drier air over southern New England. Lows
overnight will be bounded by dewpoints in the low to mid 40s. Also,
with the wet surface and moist boundary layer, we may also see some
patchy radiation fog develop where skies clear and winds decouple,
mainly across the interior.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night
Key Messages
* Mild temperatures Wednesday with breezy northwest winds
* Strong cold front brings cold/blustery conditions tomorrow night
As low pressure continues to move east over The Atlantic waters
tomorrow, southern New England will be caught between high pressure
over to the west and low pressure to the east. This will support
deep north/northwest flow that begin to usher cooler/drier air over
southern New England. Despite the CAA, 925 hPa temps will be in the 7-
8 Celsius range which, with deep mixing, will support mild surface
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s in southern New England
tomorrow afternoon. Expect periods of sunshine tomorrow, especially
across the interior, but some diurnal cloud cover is expected as
well. Winds will be steady out of the north/northwest around 15 mph
with some 25 mph gusts possible in the mid-afternoon.
Low-level CAA continues tomorrow night as a strong surface cold
front pushes through the region. This will bring 925 hPa temps down
near 0C by Thursday morning. As a result we can expect very chilly
low temps on Thursday in the mid to upper 30s for much of southern
New England. Additionally, an impressive cold pool aloft should
support mixing that will allow for 20-25 mph northwest wind gusts at
the surface. Overall a cold/blustery Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Blustery with below normal temps Thurs; cloudy, periods of ocean-
  effect cloudiness, stronger northerly winds for the Cape and very
  minor coastal flooding for Nantucket.
* Dry with a warming trend Fri/Sat. Mid 70s possible Sun.
* Cold front later Sun night and Mon brings a period of rainy
  conditions.
Details:
Thursday:
Deep longwave trough at 500 mb digs southward along the U.S. East
Coast; as this occurs, a northerly pressure gradient will tighten up
some as the coastal low which is forecast to be over the Maritimes
begins to meander or perhaps slightly retrograde. A 925-850 mb
thermal trough associated with the 500 mb longwave trough will also
help foster not just cooler than normal temps, but will also favor
mixing and potential for a rather breezy/gusty day, especially
toward the coast.
While still mostly sunny in the interior and even into the coastal
plain, below normal temperatures are expected given 925 mb temps
around -2 to 0C with northerly winds around 10-15 mph making it feel
like the mid 40s (highs lower to mid 50s). Near the eastern MA
coastline and especially out over the Cape and Islands, wrap-around
moisture from the coastal low with the cooler air aloft will lead to
a rather dreary period with ocean effect cloudiness, periods of
ocean-effect showers, and winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. This
will also favor a period of gale-force gusts on the eastern waters
and have hoisted a gale watch for these waters. Finally, P-ETSS and
Stevens Institute storm surge guidance shows forecast storm surge
around 1.5 ft (to 2 ft in an absolute worst-case) for Nantucket
Harbor. This could support another round of splashover or minor
coastal flooding. Based on this past coastal storm, forecast surge
values were running a bit high compared to observed values and
impacts were minimal, so we really need to see total water levels
around 5.2 ft MLLW before we start seeing adverse impacts. May need
coastal flood headlines for Nantucket Harbor associated with the
Thurs late-evening high tide around 928 PM.
Nighttime lows, while still rather chilly in the upper 30s to the
mid 40s, will be kept up some by at least the continued northerly
winds and also coastal cloudiness.
Friday/Saturday:
Transition period in the pattern toward 500 mb height rises and a
warming trend to temps for late in the week into the early weekend.
Sunny and dry with decreasing northerly winds, with highs on Fri in
the lower 60s, and into the mid 60s to perhaps near 70 on Sat
depending on how well we can mix.
Sunday and Monday:
Main forecast challenge in this period is the timing of a strong
cold front which moves through either Sunday or on Monday. This will
affect the timing of rain chances but also on temperatures for both
Sunday and Monday. Leaned toward a slower frontal timing which would
mean warmer temps on Sunday, which were already forecast to be above
normal in the lower 70s, but mid to even upper 70s could be
conceivable given 925 temps around +10C if cloud cover/rain from the
front can hold off. Thinking rain chances increase Sun night into
Mon, leading to a cloudy day Mon with periods of showers and temps
in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z TAF Update:
Through 00Z: High Confidence in trends. Moderate in timing.
Light rain/drizzle continues to wind down through 21Z across the
interior but may linger through 00Z over Cape/Islands. IFR/LIFR
ceilings should begin lifting to MVFR between 21-00Z. Steady
north/northeast winds around 10 knots continue with some gusts
up to 20 knots possible.
Tonight: High Confidence
Mainly VFR conditions, but sct MVFR CIGS possible esspically
near the coasts. With the rain from the last couple days and
clear overnight skies, may see areas of radiation/ground fog
develop and low lying areas. Light to calm winds
Tomorrow: High Confidence
VFR with SCT MVFR CIGS across the Cape and Islands. Gusty N
winds up to 25 knots inland, and 30 knots near the waters.
Tomorrow Night: High Confidence
VFR. Steady northwest winds around 15 knots with 20-25 knot
gusts.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF trends.
IFR ceilings persist for a few more hours but should improve to
MVFR by about 21Z. Expect VFR ceilings by 00Z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Marine
Tonight through Tomorrow Night
Gusty northerly winds dominate the coastal waters through the end of
the week. Northeast 15-25 knot northeast winds gradually weaken and
become northwest from 10 to 15 knots tonight. The weaker wind speeds
will be short-lived however, is 15-25 knot northwest winds develop
over the coastal waters tomorrow into tomorrow night. Gale force
gusts are forecast to develop on Thursday, thus a Gale Watch has
been raised for the eastern marine zones. Seas remain elevated
generally in the 5 to 8 foot range through the period. Seas a bit
lower over the near-shore south coastal marine zones in the 2 to 5
foot range.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local
rough seas.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231>234.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/RM
MARINE...Loconto/RM

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion