965 FXUS63 KSGF 140840 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 340 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather to continue into the start of the week coupled with isolated to widely scattered afternoon rain chances.

- A mid week pattern change will initiate a cooling trend with better rain chances Wednesday into Thursday. Lingering low rain chances continue into the weekend.

- Despite the daily chances of rain...overall rainfall will be modest this week.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Meridional flow to become accentuated Sunday as an upper trough digs further into the southern Plains, squeezing the ridge from LA through the Great Lakes.

Upper level moisture riding the ridge will have a limited affect in blocking insolation knocking back highs a few degrees particularly in the west but it will still be unseasonably hot.

There will be two areas in which scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may form this afternoon. First area will be over eastern Kansas associated with the energy rotating around the trough to the west and the second over the eastern Ozarks where better buoyancy exists along the ridge axis.

By Monday the energy rotating around the trough will ride up the ridge resulting in weak zonal flow though with the moist air mass in place buoyancy will lead to isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection once again. 850 mb temperatures will begin a slow slide resulting in afternoon highs topping out a few degrees cooler in the lower 90s.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

As suggested by past runs, 00z models highlight a welcome change for most to the pattern during the period as the upper flow becomes dominated by a ridge building over the west and northern stream energy digging a mean trough over the nation`s midsection.

There will be daily rain chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms as the upper ridge weakens and heights begin to fall to start the week followed by better coverage ahead an approaching cold front Wed/Thu. Questions exist in whether the front clears or meanders over the region which potentially maintains the rain chances into next weekend. All day rain outs are not expected, nor is heavy rain...with much of the rain being light in nature.

Temperatures in this regime will trend downward back through the 80s...and potentially even drop below normal next weekend.

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Isolated to widely scattered SHRA and perhaps some TSRA will be possible east of Highway 5 into the eastern Ozarks Sunday afternoon...otherwise sct-bkn upper level decks will be noted as upper level moisture streams across the region.

.CLIMATE... Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within 5 degrees of a record.

Record High Temperatures:

September 13: KSGF: 99/2011 KVIH: 96/1956 KUNO: 96/1980

September 14: KVIH: 99/1971

September 15: KSGF: 98/1893 KUNO: 98/1954

September 16: KSGF: 95/2019 KVIH: 96/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 15: KSGF: 74/1936

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Runnels CLIMATE...Nelson

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion