Carlton, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

594
FXUS64 KMOB 050529
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A large upper trof over the central and eastern CONUS slowly
progresses to become oriented over the eastern states through
Sunday, and in the process an associated surface low well off to the
north brings a cold front through the forecast area Saturday into
Saturday evening. A modest sea/land breeze circulation exists before
the front moves through which may be sufficient to kick off a few
spotty showers/storms each afternoon (mainly near the coast), but
coverage continues to look too limited to mention with pops. The
front will be fairly weak when it moves through, and have continued
to just have slight chance pops over a portion of interior southeast
Mississippi and Choctaw county Alabama on Saturday. Dry conditions
follow for Sunday as a large surface high builds into the eastern
states.
The upper trof weakens and mostly lifts off to the north on Monday,
then an upper trof reforms over the central states Monday night and
slowly progresses into the eastern states through Wednesday. It
appears that a series of modest shortwaves in the easterlies may
meanwhile move into the forecast area on Tuesday then become
entwined with the base of the upper trof as it progresses into the
region. This looks to be sufficient to support slight chance to
chance pops on Tuesday over the southern and central portions of the
area, with slight chance pops mostly over the coastal counties on
Wednesday. Dry conditions then return to the area on Thursday as the
upper trof advances a bit further eastward, although cannot rule out
that small pops could eventually become necessary along and east of
I-65 depending on how the upper pattern plays out.
Highs on Friday and Saturday will be mostly 90-95 then trend cooler
by Monday to 85-90, with similar values following for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Thursday will be a bit warmer and generally around 90.
Lows Friday night will be in the lower 70s, then trend cooler
through Sunday night to range from around 60 well inland to the
mid/upper 60s near the coast. Monday night through Wednesday night
tend to range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the immediate
coast. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated through Monday
night, then a moderate risk follows for Tuesday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Light overnight
winds will become southerly 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon over
areas south of Highway 84.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A mostly light diurnal flow will continue through Saturday with an
onshore flow developing in the afternoon then becoming offshore at
night. A northerly flow follows for Sunday and strengthens Sunday
night before diminishing on Monday. A moderate to occasionally
strong northeasterly flow develops Monday night then diminishes
somewhat on Tuesday as it becomes easterly. Will need to monitor for
Small Craft Exercise Caution or potential Small Craft Advisory
conditions over the open Gulf waters late Sunday night into Monday
morning and again late Monday night into Tuesday morning. No other
impacts are anticipated other than higher winds and seas near
storms. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  92  71  91  66  89  67  89 /   0  10   0  10   0   0  10  30
Pensacola   73  92  73  92  69  90  72  88 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  20  30
Destin      75  90  75  91  71  89  73  87 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  20  30
Evergreen   70  94  69  91  60  91  67  90 /   0  10   0   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  70  92  67  87  61  87  63  89 /   0  20  10   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      72  92  69  88  61  89  66  88 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   70  93  70  92  64  90  68  87 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  10  20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion