Carlton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS64 KFWD 051835
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
135 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms may impact Friday evening/night
  sporting events across North Texas. Lightning and downburst
  winds will be the main threats.
- Cooler weather and rain chances continue through Monday behind a
  cold front. Average total rainfall amounts over the four day
  period are expected to be around .75 inch or less.
- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/
A hot afternoon is still in store for much of the region with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s. An active period will
begin later this afternoon through tonight as a cold front continues
to slowly move across North Texas. Scattered showers and storms are
still expected to develop near/along the front with the support of a
weak mid/upper level trough and daytime mixing. Based on the latest
CAMs, the onset of storms should be after 3-4pm as the front aligns
west-to-east north of I-20. The coverage of precipitation should
increase in the evening hours, but some locations may miss the rain
entirely. The threat for a few strong to marginally severe storms
will exist for areas generally north of I-20 through the evening
with damaging winds and small hail. Those with outdoor activities
this evening should pay close attention to the weather due to the
lightning threat with any storm. The rain/storms will continue to
spread into Central Texas overnight as the front moves south but the
severe threat is expected to diminish by then. Post frontal rain
will persist into Saturday morning as continued tropical moisture
gets transported into our region. The front should be south of our
area by Saturday afternoon, but low rain/storm chances will persist
for areas in Central/East Texas. The more exciting news continues to
be the cooler weather expected tomorrow with highs staying in the
70s/80s area wide with the exception of the far southern zones where
the front may linger longer keeping the highs in the mid/upper 80s.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 226 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025/
/Saturday Onward/
A stark temperature difference is expected on Saturday compared
to yesterday and today thanks to the incoming cold front, arriving
later today. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with
mostly cloudy skies much of the day. Zonal flow in the mid and
upper levels will keep Pacific moisture atop North and Central
Texas. This should provide just enough moisture for a few showers
and isolated storms in the morning. By the afternoon, a temporary
break from the rain chances is expected as the shortwave moves
away from North and Central Texas.
The period of no/low precipitation chances will be short-lived as
the next wave of ascent moves overhead on Sunday. An elongated
area of high pressure across Mexico will drive additional Pacific
moisture across our region. Embedded shortwaves will once again
ignite showers and storms in the afternoon. Although severe
weather is not expected, lightning will once again pose a threat
to anyone outdoors. Rain chances will linger through Monday before
a more prolonged drying trend commences as we approach the middle
of the week.
By midweek, a well amplified ridge will begin to develop along
the Plains in response to an amplifying trough to our west. This
should shunt precipitation chances away from our region and lead
to a gradual warming trend. By Thursday, North and Central Texas
will return to temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, which is 1-3
degrees above normal for this time of the year.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Concerns...Potential for scattered storms late afternoon into the
evening with FROPA.
VFR with a mix of mid/high level clouds will continue the rest of
the day. A cold front will continue to slowly move across North
Texas late this afternoon into the evening. Scattered showers and
storms are still expected to develop along and just behind the
front. Confidence for TSRA to impact any of the DFW Metroplex
sites is still too low to mention any TEMPO at this time, but the
best timing for storms to be in the vicinity of most sites will
be between 23Z through 05Z. Outside of the lightning threat, a few
isolated storms could become strong to marginally severe with a
threat for damaging winds and hail. This risk (including
lightning) will decrease overnight as the front continues to push
across Central Texas, but lingering light rain/showers will
persist through Saturday morning. The combination of light rain
and weak winds may result in MVFR ceilings Saturday morning, but
should lift by 18Z Saturday. North winds will prevail behind the
front, becoming breezy with FROPA this evening but eventually
decreasing to less than 10 kt through tomorrow.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon
and evening for areas generally along and north of I-20. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  67  81  69  84 /  20  40  30  10  20
Waco                98  72  80  70  84 /   0  20  30  20  50
Paris               92  67  78  64  82 /  20  60  40  10  10
Denton              96  64  81  65  84 /  30  40  30  10  20
McKinney            95  66  80  66  84 /  20  50  30  10  20
Dallas              97  68  81  69  85 /  10  40  30  20  20
Terrell             94  69  80  67  83 /  10  50  40  20  20
Corsicana           96  72  81  70  84 /   0  30  30  20  40
Temple              97  72  83  68  84 /   0  10  20  20  50
Mineral Wells       98  64  80  65  83 /  20  40  30  10  30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion