Carnelian Bay California Weather Forecast Discussion

702
FXUS65 KREV 100932
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy to gusty winds through today with potential recreation,
  aviation, and localized fire weather impacts.
* A cold front Saturday morning will bring cooler temperatures and
  low chances for light rain/mountain snow showers this weekend.
* Another storm arrives early next week keeping the cold
  temperatures, but with better chances of rain and mountain
  snow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy conditions persist early this morning across
much of the region as the first of a series of upper level lows that
will be affecting us for the next seven days arrives today. Its
associated cold front will push through the region tomorrow,
Saturday. In the meantime, expect gusty south-southwest winds with
gusts between 20-35 mph in valleys, wind prone locations to 35-45
mph, and Sierra crest 65-85 mph to persist today. Localized fire
concerns continue for portions of Mono and Mineral county as
minimum relative humidity increases 5-10% compared to yesterday,
but remains below 15%. Other impacts associated to the winds will
be to recreational activities in the lakes, mainly Tahoe and
Pyramid as choppy waters lead to hazardous boating conditions.
Also if you are driving in the NV Basin and Range, patchy blowing
dust from playas and dry lake beds will reduce visibilities.
Rain arrives to our area late this afternoon and early evening as
the cold front starts to push through the area over portions of
NE CA. It will move slowly as it reaches western NV early
tomorrow morning. However, rainfall amounts are expected to be
very light, generally below 0.05 inches in the Sierra, and very
spotty in western NV. Many places may not see much, if any rain.
Snow levels will drop to around 7-7.5 kft behind the front. So,
snow will be restricted to the highest elevations of mountains
with amounts below 0.5 inches. There is only a 10-20% chance of
exceeding one inch of snow at the Sierra crest peaks. Precipitation
chances drop quickly on Saturday evening, and as the skies clear
the cold weather follows closely behind.
Temperatures drop to below seasonal on Saturday afternoon behind
the front, but of greater impact will be the morning low
temperatures on Sunday morning. Low temps will be well below
freezing across Sierra and NE CA. Meanwhile, temps in western NV
will be generally flirting with freezing temperatures. The Reno-
Sparks metro areas has only a 5% chance of seeing freezing
temperatures, while Carson City, Lovelock, Fallon and Yerington
have a 30-45%, and Susanville, Portola and Minden have a 80-100%
chance of freezing on Sunday morning.
Next week, the pattern becomes uncertain with the descend of
another upper low descending along the main storm track from the
PacNW. Model guidance has very drastic scenarios resulting in
either significant amounts of rain/mountain snow in the Sierra, or
low amounts of rain/snow. Latest ECMWF EFI is not showing an
anomalous event through the week, but the Shift of Tails indicates
some outlier members in the ensemble are not following that
trend. Therefore, confidence is very low for the forecast next
week. Anyway, watch out for an increase in winds on Monday-Tuesday
with the approach of the low. While rain/snow may start late on
Monday, but the details like amounts and more precise timing are
uncertain. Stay tuned through the weekend for more details as we
start receiving more high-resolution data.
-HC
&&
.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions continue through Friday with increasing
S-SW winds with gusts up to 35 kts this afternoon. MVFR conditions
are likely near -RA due to lower clouds, mainly in the Sierra.
Mountain obscurations will be a concern too after 03Z. Expect
areas of LLWS and turbulence for all terminals today, and
continuing over Sierra terminals through Saturday morning along
the cold front. This cold front on early Saturday morning brings
10-30% chance for light and isolated showers for Tahoe and
W.Nevada terminals.
-Fuentes/HC
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002-004.
CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ072.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion