Carp, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

898
FXUS65 KVEF 100509
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1009 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A low pressure system will bring breezy winds, cooler
  temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
* Smoke from the Garnet Fire will continue to impact the Owens
  Valley and Esmeralda County during the overnight and morning hours
  for the next few days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
A low pressure system, currently located off the coast of northern
California, will dig into the area over the next few days. As a
result, we will see gusty southerly to southwesterly winds pick up
across the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Wind gusts will largely
be in the 20 to 40 mph range. However, isolated wind gusts in excess
of 40 mph will be possible across the eastern portions of our
forecast area where upper-level winds will be the strongest. In
addition to gusty winds, this system will also bring cooler than
normal temperatures with temperatures around 7 to 12 degrees below
normal during the second half of the week. The eastern Sierra and
northwestern Esmeralda County will see a 15 to 30% chance for
isolated showers on Wednesday and Thursday as this system moves in.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the rest of the region.
As this system slowly pushes into the area, we will find ourselves
under southwesterly flow aloft through Thursday. This will allow for
smoke from the Garnet Fire in the western Sierra to be transported
into the Owens Valley and Esmeralda County. Reduced visibility and
poor air quality can be expected overnight into the morning hours as
smoke settles in valleys and lower elevations. Conditions look to
improve across the northwestern portions of our forecast area
beginning Friday as we find ourselves on the back side of the low
pressure system, which will result in northwesterly flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Moderate confidence in the overnight wind forecast. Most
likely, winds will remain south around 10KT, however there is a low
chance for west winds gusting to 25KT to occur in the next few
hours. By 09Z, no matter what happens over the next few hours, wind
should become south, briefly lose any gusts for a few hours, and sit
around 10KT. Around 12Z, southerly gusts to around 20KT should
return and continue through the early afternoon before become
southwest and increasing to 20-25KT after 20Z. Uncertainty returns
Wednesday evening if winds will diminish with gusts end or if west-
southwest winds gust to 25KT will push through the terminals.
Favored what occurred tonight in the current TAF forecast however
changes may be need to reflect latest guidance and trends. VFR and
dry conditions will prevail through the period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...North winds may push
smoke into the Owens Valley tonight. Moderate confidence in the BIH
TAF, winds tonight are not as strong thus smoke impacts so far have
been minimal. This should continue, however there is a low chance
that visibility restrictions and occasional low CIGs due to smoke
will occur at times through the night. If smoke results in
visibility or CIG restrictions tonight at KBIH, improvement in
conditions are expected after 18Z Wednesday when southeast winds
return. Smoke and impacts may return Wednesday evening as winds turn
north which may push smoke back into the area, but it will depend on
fire behavior and if the north winds will be strong enough ti push
impactful smoke south into the Owens Valley. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected across the region. Other than isolated showers
or thunderstorms in the Sierra Wednesday afternoon, it will remain
dry. Expect typical overnight wind patterns in most location, then
south to southwest winds return Wednesday afternoon with gusts 20-
25KT across the region through 03z with winds then decreasing to
less than 10KT overnight. Gusts to around 25KT may persist in the
Western Mojave Desert around KDAG tonight and again Wednesday evening
and overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Nickerson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion