Carrabelle, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

261
FXUS62 KTAE 061413
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1013 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The forecast is tracking well with current conditions and latest
guidance, so no updates are forthcoming.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Today much of the region will be sandwiched between an area of low
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a weak front approaching from the
north. Surface high pressure overhead will keep conditions warm and
dry for the most part, although moisture will continue to creep up
from the south and may lead to a few showers and storms over the
southeast Big Bend and Gulf waters. Highs today are forecast in the
low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Low temperatures overnight are forecast a tad bit warmer with
increasing moisture, ranging from the low to mid 70s. With the
increase in humidity, some patchy fog will also be possible in the
early morning hours with the best chances across south central GA
and the FL Big Bend.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A weak frontal feature looks to move across the region on Sunday.
This feature then stalls across the FL Peninsula and northern Gulf
on Monday through midweek, before slowly moving further south at the
end of the week. This will lead to unsettled weather Monday through
Wednesday as the stationary boundary acts as a forcing mechanism for
diurnal showers and storms. Given the prevailing east to
northeasterly flow, moisture advection looks to come into the region
from the Atlantic. This would place the best precip chances in areas
across southern GA, and the FL Big Bend, where mid to late afternoon
convection would fire off. The moisture advection doesn`t quite make
it far enough west and northwest each day to provide instability
across the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama. Thus, lower precip chances
should be expected across these regions. As the stationary boundary
shifts further south on Thursday and Friday, we`ll see precip
chances gradually decrease as our forcing mechanism weakens and
relatively drier northeast air continues to advect across the region.
Expect daytime highs to generally be in the low to mid 90s on Sunday
dipping into the mid and upper 80s next week as unsettled weather
and cloud cover suppress high temps. Overnight lows follow a similar
cooldown pattern with temps initially in the low 70s Sunday morning
dipping into the mid to upper 60s by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Patchy fog will be possible near KVLD this morning. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
East to northeast flow will prevail over the waters through midweek
next week. Cautionary conditions could be possible behind a cold
front Monday night into Tuesday with winds between 15 to 20 knots.
Seas respond by increasing to 2 to 4 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Weak transport winds today will likely lead to fair dispersions with
high pressure over the area. A weak front pushing southward through
the area Sunday and Monday will lead to some scattered showers and
storms along with increasing offshore transport winds and subsequent
higher dispersions. A few pockets of high dispersions will be
possible both Sunday and Monday in the wake of the front, largely
depending on how much southward progress it has made each
afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Little in the way of rainfall is expected through the next week.
There are currently no flooding concerns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  75  92  71 /  10  10  30  10
Panama City   92  75  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
Dothan        93  72  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
Albany        94  72  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      94  73  92  71 /  10  10  30  10
Cross City    94  73  93  72 /  40  20  50  30
Apalachicola  87  75  88  74 /  20  20  30  20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion