Carrizozo New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

856
FXUS65 KABQ 082340 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
- A few storms may produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty outflow
  winds, and small hail in western and central New Mexico this
  afternoon and evening.
- The remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla will bring widespread
  to numerous showers and storms to the area Friday through
  Sunday, with the heaviest rain and highest flash flood risk
  focusing over western New Mexico on Saturday.
- There is moderate to high confidence that the wet pattern will
  continue into early and mid-next week as well-above normal
  moisture levels persist over New Mexico.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
As of Noon, patchy fog and low clouds persist in much of central and
eastern NM, but the trend has been for decreasing coverage as winds
turn back around to the south. Storms have begun to develop over the
Continental Divide where morning clearing allowed the sfc to warm-
up. These storms will continue to increase in coverage as they
slowly drift eastward into the Rio Grande Valley late this afternoon
and in the evening. Despite persistent fog this morning, storms are
expected to develop over the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon.
A theta-e ridge is present over central New Mexico and higher
moisture air is being advected in from the south, indicating
instability is present even if sfc heating won`t be impressive
today. HREF 50th percentile rainfall amounts today range from 0.3-
0.7" which would be borderline for flash flooding, but high-end
amounts (90th percentile) are showing 1-1.25" which would very
likely cause impacts, even if rainfall intensities are moderate. Max
rainfall intensity is the biggest question mark and will be what
determines if there is excessive runoff or not.
The HREF has been consistently showing the batch of storms over west-
central NM, moving into the ABQ/Santa Fe areas this evening, with a
few showers and storms lingering as late as 2AM tomorrow morning.
There may be a few showers and storms in western NM as well, but
confidence is lower out there. The HREF is bullish once again about
fog development tonight for areas just east of the central mountain
chain and in the southeast plains, while the NBM is showing hardly
any reduced visibility at all. With southerly winds (as opposed to
easterly upslope) conditions will be less favorable for fog, but
very high RH (98%+) for almost all of central and eastern NM does
suggest at least patchy fog will develop in the typical favored
areas such as the central highlands.
Ridging will continue to amplify over the southern Rockies on
Thursday, pushing the main plume of moisture into western NM and
Arizona. Afternoon showers and storms will favor the western third
of the CWA as a result, with mostly light to moderate intensities.
Temperatures will come down a few degrees across the west, with
higher temps in the east thanks to breezy south winds that will help
to dry and warm the plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
A longwave trough over the western US will interact with deep,
subtropical moisture (the remnants of now Tropical Storm Priscilla)
Friday through Sunday, bringing widespread precipitation to central
and northern New Mexico. The base of the trough will still be over
the eastern Pacific on Friday, placing the main plume of moisture
off to the west of New Mexico. PWAT anomalies will be as high as 6
std dev above normal in northern AZ, with values as high as 4-5 std
dev above normal in far northwestern NM. Lift from a jet streak over
Utah will help to drive precipitation Friday and Friday in western
NM, with coverage expanding eastward through the night as the trough
begins to dig into The Great Basin. Since we are in October now, jet
dynamics will drive rainfall and precip. will be less diurnally
driven as a result.
Rainfall rates will peak during the afternoon hours when instability
is greatest, but showers will likely persist through the overnight
hours into the morning on Saturday. As it sits, Saturday is
currently looking like it has the potential to be the wettest and
most impactful day of the period. Moisture levels (per NAEFS
guidance) will be above the 99.5th percentile for all areas along
and west of the central mountain chain and increased lift from the
approaching trough will drive the development of numerous showers
and storms, with the greatest coverage across the northwestern
portion of the state. Rounds of showers and storms will increase the
risk of excessive runoff and creeks and streams will likely be
running high as a result. Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values
will also be well-above normal and this moist transport from the
southwest will generate some orographic rainfall over the mountains
of western NM. The good news is that much of this rain will fall
into areas with severe to extreme drought conditions as 1-2" of
widespread rainfall could help to put a small dent into these
drought conditions. The main slug of moisture will be advected
eastward on Sunday, but at least scattered showers and storms should
continue into Sunday throughout much of the CWA. While the highest
rainfall totals will not be over the Ruidoso burn scars, repeated
rounds of rain in that area will pose at least a moderate risk of
flash flooding on Sunday (and potentially Monday - Wednesday as
well). Folks in that area should be alert to the heavy rain threat
even through we area even though we are out of monsoon season.
New Mexico will remain squeezed between a ridge over TX and a trough
over the western US next week, pushing more subtropical moisture
into New Mexico. Model agreement is high with regard to the ridge
over Texas, but low for the location of the trough over western NM.
Another tropical system will likely get pulled up into the desert
southwest and this deeper moisture could once again trigger flash
flooding. GEFS mean PWATs are already showing PWATs of 200-300% of
normal across almost the entire CWA by Tuesday of next week, which
is quite impressive for an ensemble mean that far into the future
considering the moderately high model disagreement.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
VFR conditions prevail, but are forecast to deteriorate overnight
across eastern and portions of central NM. Current round of
showers and storms across central and western NM will continue to
impact the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace through 04-05Z with short-lived
MVFR conditions, gusty winds and small hail. Areas of MVFR
conditions in low stratus will develop overnight across eastern
and portions of central NM, with higher probabilities for IFR
conditions at KLVS. Improvement on Thursday morning will be slow,
but VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites by early
afternoon. Another round of storms is forecast Thursday afternoon
and will favor western and portions of central NM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Scattered showers and storms will favor central and western NM
today. RH recoveries tonight will once again be excellent areawide
and some patchy fog may develop along and east of the Continental
Divide as well. Rain will be confined to the western third of the
state on Thursday, expanding eastward Friday into Saturday as rain
chances and intensities increase. Widespread wetting rainfall is
likely during this period for all areas along and west of the
central mountain chain and the high terrain of western NM may see
2"+. There is moderate to high confidence that the wet pattern will
continue into early and mid-next week as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  77  59  74 /  20  30  50  50
Dulce...........................  43  74  46  69 /  30  30  40  40
Cuba............................  47  71  50  70 /  50  30  30  20
Gallup..........................  49  73  51  74 /  20  30  40  30
El Morro........................  49  69  50  71 /  40  30  30  20
Grants..........................  48  71  50  72 /  40  30  30  20
Quemado.........................  49  71  50  74 /  30  30  10  10
Magdalena.......................  52  70  54  72 /  30  20   5   5
Datil...........................  49  68  49  69 /  40  30  10  10
Reserve.........................  49  77  50  77 /  30  30  10  10
Glenwood........................  54  82  54  81 /  30  20   5   5
Chama...........................  41  69  45  64 /  20  30  40  40
Los Alamos......................  50  69  53  70 /  60  30  20  20
Pecos...........................  48  70  49  70 /  40  20  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  46  72  49  70 /  20  20  20  20
Red River.......................  39  63  41  62 /  20  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  33  68  35  66 /  20  20  10  10
Taos............................  45  73  47  72 /  30  20  20  10
Mora............................  41  70  44  70 /  30  30  10  10
Espanola........................  50  77  53  76 /  60  30  20  10
Santa Fe........................  51  70  54  71 /  60  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  50  73  53  73 /  60  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  75  60  77 /  50  20  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  77  58  78 /  50  20  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  79  58  80 /  50  20  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  77  59  78 /  50  20  10   5
Belen...........................  52  79  55  80 /  40  20   5   0
Bernalillo......................  54  78  58  79 /  60  20  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  52  78  55  80 /  50  20   5   5
Corrales........................  54  78  58  80 /  50  20  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  53  78  56  80 /  50  20   5   0
Placitas........................  54  73  57  75 /  50  20  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  55  78  58  78 /  60  20  10   5
Socorro.........................  57  80  58  81 /  30  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  70  52  71 /  50  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  52  71  54  73 /  50  20  10   5
Edgewood........................  47  73  50  74 /  40  20  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  73  48  75 /  30  20   5   5
Clines Corners..................  47  68  49  70 /  30  20   5   0
Mountainair.....................  48  72  50  73 /  30  20   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  48  72  50  73 /  20  20   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  54  74  54  75 /  20  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  67  48  69 /  20  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  73  50  71 /   5   5   0   0
Raton...........................  46  76  49  75 /   5  10   5   5
Springer........................  46  78  50  77 /  10  10   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  70  49  70 /  20  20  10   5
Clayton.........................  56  79  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  52  74  53  74 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  54  80  55  81 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  52  75  53  76 /  10  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  54  79  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  80  56  82 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  57  80  56  82 /   5   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  56  78  55  79 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  59  80  58  82 /  10   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  75  53  77 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  51  73  49  75 /  10  20   0   0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion