Carter, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

327
FXUS64 KOUN 051140
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Strong cold front passage today with much cooler temperatures
   behind it.
- Severe storms possible this evening/tonight along and south of
   the cold front near the Red River.
- Cooler, below average temperatures this weekend into early
   next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
At the time of the writing of this AFD, the immediate concern is an
area of storms forming along the nose of the LLJ from northwest to
central Oklahoma. MUCAPE is currently in the 500-1,500 J/kg range as
that LLJ advects in an EML aloft. Elevated thunderstorms have access
to ample deep-layer shear thanks to an 80-kt jet streak just below
the tropopause. Therefore, there will be a non-zero risk for hail up
to the size of quarters and wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range. These
storms have shown a tendency to expand and propagate southeastward
over the course of the night, a trend that is expected to continue.
Further isentropic development of showers and thunderstorms will
occur by early morning in advance of the approach of yet another
cold front. This front will barrel into our area during the morning
hours. By noontime, the front will reach the Red River, where a weak
surface low will stall its progress. In advance of and in a narrow
zone immediately behind the front, sufficient instability will be in
place for surface-based storms to develop. Wonky wind profiles will
occur due to the front and veering of winds immediately in advance
of it, but vertical wind shear will be more than adequate for
updraft organization. A marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe
weather is in place in far southern Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas for today and this evening along that front.
The other thing to watch will be the drastic reduction in
temperatures in the postfrontal airmass. The gradient in highs will
be particularly notable today; near the Red River, where the
front may not pass until late this afternoon, we are forecasting
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. In northern Oklahoma, highs
will fail to make it out of the 60s. With such a sharp gradient in
forecast highs, users are cautioned that potential forecast
errors could easily be larger than normal today (ie, somewhere
could be 5-10 degrees warmer than forecasted if the front stalls
further north, or else locations could be 10 or more degrees
cooler than forecasted in the Red River region if the front is
faster).
Meister
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Welcome to fall! At least that`s what it will feel like the
atmosphere is telling you if you happen to be out and about during
the day tomorrow. Rain chances will end early in the morning and
skies will clear out from north to south between daybreak and noon
as the latest lobe of the Great Lakes trough departs and 500 mb
heights begin to rise. Surface winds will remain light out of the
northeast on the periphery of an expansive Great Plains surface
high, so cold/dry advection will continue. We anticipate the final
result to be a classic preview of fall weather in the afternoon -
sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and comfortable humidity.
On Sunday, model guidance depicts an attempt on the part of the
subtropical ridge to shift its focus from the Gulf toward the Four
Corners. The translational phase will bring the core of the ridge
across the Southern Plains during the day on Sunday. For the most
part, our area will continue to be influenced by the Great Lakes
trough to a greater degree than the subtropical ridge, so
temperatures should only warm a couple of degrees. However, the
southwestern corner of the CWA could warm up a little bit more than
other spots.
Meister
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The main story for the long term period looks to be a gradual return
to drier and closer-to-normal conditions next week. The biggest
reason for the pattern shift is that (finally!) the Great Lakes
trough looks to get kicked out by a more active wave packet on
Monday and Tuesday. This will allow shortwave ridging to dominate
the Plains by the middle of the week. In a sign that the seasonal
transition really is upon us, guidance shows that ridge maxing out
at 588-591 dam even though it looks plenty amped. The one window for
storm chances that is apparent to us at this range is early Monday -
a northwest flow wave is showing on the GFS/NAM in advance of the
ridge. This could set off a round of upslope convection and increase
thunderstorm chances in our northwestern counties especially.
Meister
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A rain shield moving through northwest Oklahoma will keep
terminal KWWR in an IFR to MVFR category through 14Z due to a
lowered ceiling. Otherwise, the rest of our terminals will most
likely remain in a VFR category through of the forecast. A cold
front will be pushing through between 12-00Z shifting surface
winds out of the east-northeast with windspeeds at 15-20 kts
behind the front with gusts in the 25-30 kts range. Although
scattered light rain was occurring north of the I-40 corridor,
additional convection could develop along the front. The highest
probabilities from 13-17Z are at 3 of our terminals in northern OK
where TEMPOS are in place. Probabilities for TSRA are lower but at
least 30% across our remaining terminals where PROB30s are in
place. Should any storms move over our terminals, they could be
reduced briefly to a MVFR category mainly due to lowered
visibilities in rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  55  74  59 /  20  20  10   0
Hobart OK         80  55  78  59 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  92  59  78  63 /  30  20  10  10
Gage OK           67  49  75  56 /  50  30   0  10
Ponca City OK     69  51  77  54 /  60  30   0   0
Durant OK         93  61  79  64 /  30  50  20  10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...68

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion