Carver, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

010
FXUS63 KJKL 012220
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
620 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.
- Into the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each night.
- Chances for rain may return by Tuesday and/or Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
A delightful early October evening is unfolding with mild
temperatures falling out of the 80s and through the 70s under fair
skies. The forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
The latest surface analysis indicates that the dominant synoptic
feature is a high-pressure center situated over central Ontario and
central Quebec. Although the highs center is displaced to the
north, its expansive influence is currently being felt across
eastern Kentucky.
For the remainder of the day and throughout the forecast period,
this robust dome of surface high pressure is expected to remain
firmly established across the region. The presence of this dome of
high pressure will lead to prevailing dry conditions and gradually
warming temperatures. Maximum temperatures today and Thursday are
forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. Consistent with the dry
pattern, the primary adjustment to the NBM guidance remains the
lowering of forecast dew points, as the prevailing synoptic flow is
not positioned to advect significant low-level moisture into the
area.
As for the overnight period, skies will remain predominantly clear.
This condition favors efficient radiational cooling of the surface,
which will enhance the potential for localized dense fog formation
within river valleys and other low-lying areas. Minimum temperatures
are expected to fall into the low to upper 50s, with the coldest
readings confined to valley locations due to topographic control.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
The periods is expected to begin with an upper level ridge
extending from the OH Valley and Appalachians to off the coast of
VA and NC, while further west, another upper level ridge should
extend from Mexico in the Southern to Central Plains. Weak upper
level troughing should initially extend from the Atlantic across
the Bahamas and FL to the Gulf Coast and eastern Gulf. Further
west, an upper level trough is expected to extend across much of
the western Conus. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure should
extend from the Atlantic to the mid Atlantic states to the
Appalachians and TN Valley to Arklatex as the period begins.
Friday to Saturday night, upper level ridging is expected to
generally remain in place with the axis of this fridge from the
Atlantic to the VA and NC coast to the middle OH Valley and
Central Appalachians with another upper level ridge extending from
Mexico into the Southern Plains. Further west, the upper level
trough should remain over the western Conus, with a shortwave
trough progressing across the Rockies and into the Northern to
Central Plains. Over the Gulf to Gulf coast, upper level troughing
may evolve into a weak upper low near the lower MS Valley/MS delta
vicinity that moves into the western to northwest Gulf coast by
late Saturday night. The ridge of sfc high pressure meanwhile
should remain centered off the mid Atlantic coast with riding
extending into the OH Valley and eastern KY. At the same time, a
frontal zone will should move into the Northern to Central Plains
in advance of the shortwave trough working across parts of the
northern to central Plains. Across eastern KY, this pattern will
favor continued dry weather with mild temperatures about 5 to 8
degrees above normal for highs along with mostly sunny to sunny
skies for Friday and Saturday and most clear to clear nights.
Valley fog formation will also be favored each night along area
rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes. Some of this could become
dense in some locations. The fog should dissipate within 2 to 3
hours past sunrise each morning.
Sunday to Monday night, models begin to diverge a bit by the end
of the weekend with a bit more northern and northwestern upper
level low position early Sunday in the GFS with a continued trend
of a bit more aggressive moisture return north into parts of the
TN Valley and Appalachians. This trend carries over through Sunday
with much more substantial moisture return by Sunday afternoon
and evening across the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians and
encroaching on eastern KY in the GFS as compared to the past two
ECMWF that remained more consistent. Both models maintain the
upper level ridge centered near the eastern seaboard and bring a
shortwave across the Northern Plains and into the Upper MS Valley
and approach the western Great Lakes by Sunday evening. Sfc high
pressure will remain anchored off the mid Atlantic coast through
Sunday and Monday with ridging west into the OH Valley to end the
weekend. The shortwave trough that should be nearing the western
Great Lakes should progress into Ontario and Quebec through
Sunday night and Monday while the upper level ridge centered near
or all the eastern seaboard moves further from eastern KY. The GFS
continues to have more substantial moisture return into the
Appalachians than ECMWF with ECMWF runs more consistent from run
to run while the 12Z GFS was more aggressive than the prior run.
This moisture return will occur in advance of the next shortwave
trough progged to eject east across the Rockies and into the
Northern and Central Plains from troughing over the western Conus.
That shortwave should approach the Great Lakes through Monday
night and guidance is in general agreement that by Monday night
500 mb height falls should occur across the Commonwealth with the
GFS having this starting earlier and has deeper moisture across
eastern KY through Monday night. As the 500 mb heights begin to
fall, a frontal zone should also begin to approach the
Commonwealth from the northwest by the Monday to Monday night
timeframe.
For the weekend, rain free weather should continue with
temperatures remaining above normal. NBM pops were more in
alignment with the more consistent and typically better verifying
ECMWF and no changes were made. These did bring small chances to
near the TN border into the Lake Cumberland vicinity on Monday
afternoon followed by slight chances areawide later Monday night
as moisture increases, 500 mb height falls are progged, and the
frontal zone approaches. Somewhat better chances for measureable
rain hold off until a bit later in the week.
Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper level trough should advance east
from the Central Conus and across the Great Lakes, Lower and
Middle OH Valley, and into the Northeast to Southern Appalachians
and Southeast into Midweek. A sfc cold front should also move
across eastern near the end of the period as well. With moisture
expected to return into eastern KY, isolated to scattered showers
are anticipated with chances peaking Tuesday afternoon during
peak heating and again Wednesday near and in advance of the front.
A few rumbles of thunder could accompany convection to end the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Locally dense river valley fog is expected overnight but
confidence is lacking on if it will make it into any of the 5 TAF
sites. Therefore, fog was left out of the TAF. Otherwise, winds
will be largely light and variable aside from northeasterly winds
around 8 knots at KLOZ and KSME through 00Z/Thursday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion