Caryville, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

012
FXUS64 KMRX 051354
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
954 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Currently a few ongoing showers around the TN/KY/VA border
counties this morning. These weak showers will likely linger in
the vicinity through the rest of the morning before we get a
brief break in precipitation chances before ramping back up this
evening. With the dense fog and cloud from the morning
precipitation temperatures are running several degrees cooler than
previously forecasted as the sun hasn`t had much time to make it
to the surface. Am still expecting a good warm up today into the
80`s and even 90`s but some places are going to be slower than
others. Have updated hourly temperatures for the remainder of the
day to come better in line with surface observations.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered storms are likely late Friday evening into Saturday
with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible.
3. Drier and cooler weather will move in Sunday into Monday with no
rain expected during the next week.
Discussion:
Late tonight through the morning hours, isolated to scattered
showers and possibly isolated storms will develop and linger
across the region. Rain amounts will likely be light but isolated
flooding issues cannot be ruled out with some areas still soaked
from recent rains.
This afternoon will be dry and hot with increasing POPs this evening
through tomorrow afternoon as a cold front approaches. A trough will
be digging into the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys this
evening, giving the stalled cold front over Central Kentucky and
Middle Tennessee some upper level support. CAMs indicate a line of
strong storms developing to our northwest in Central Kentucky and
Middle Tennessee this evening and moving into our region late in the
evening. Most of the CAMs have this line weakening as it moves
through our region, with instability decreasing into the nighttime
hours. SPC has outlined a marginal risk for severe for most of the
region with a Slight risk upstream to the northwest. Flooding
potential will have to be monitored with repeated rounds of heavy
rain possible especially in places that have received high rain
amounts the past few days.
There may be a lull in activity late tonight or in the morning hours
before another round of showers and storms develops in the early
afternoon hours Saturday as the cold front moves closer. A few
strong storms seem possible during max heating when ML CAPE gets
around 600 to 1000 J/KG in the southern half of the region. This
will be a clean frontal passage Saturday evening bringing cooler
temps and lower dew points. Also, a noticeable wind shift to
northerly winds.
Sunday through early next week looks dry with high pressure over the
Eastern U.S. and below normal temps Sunday and Monday. Mid week will
see a warming trend with temps returning to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Dense fog is already starting to improve. VFR conditions will
return within an hour or two after sunrise. Showers are more
isolated this morning. There is increasing confidence in a line
of showers and storms moving into the region this evening. Some
storms may be strong to severe.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  70  83  60 /  20  40  50  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  90  68  79  59 /  20  50  60  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  66  77  56 /  20  60  60  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  63  77  57 /  20  30  80  30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...McD

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion