Cassoday, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

755
FXUS63 KICT 211128
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms will impact much of the area this
  morning and may linger in parts of southeast Kansas. A few
  strong or marginally severe storms may be possible in
  southeast Kansas this afternoon.
- Another storms system will impact the area late Monday night
  into Tuesday and may bring a threat for some severe storms
  but confidence in the details remains low.
- Dry and mild weather returns late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The large-scale pattern features a mid/upper trough over the
Northern Plains with more subtle shortwave troughs rotating around
this mean trough. One shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the
Northern Rockies as we move through the day today. Ahead of this
feature, we see shower and thunderstorm activity developing within
an area of isentropic upglide that is progged to continue within a
moist pbl. PWATS are expected to remain in the 150-175 percent of
normal range for late Sep leading to efficient rainfall. We may see
some breaks in much of central Kansas as we move through the day but
shower and storm activity may linger in parts of south central and
especially southeast Kansas. Clouds and precipitation will keep
highs below climate normals with most areas topping out in the mid
and upper 70s. Some shower activity may linger into the overnight
hours in southeast Kansas but much of the area is expected to remain
dry.
Mon-Wed...Shortwave ridging is progged to overspread the area on
Monday while a vigorous mid/upper trough digs into the Rockies. Much
of the area is expected to remain capped to deep moist convection
during the day on Monday but as we move into Monday night/early
Tuesday morning, we see robust sfc cyclogenesis across the Southern
Plains as large-scale forcing for ascent develops downstream from
the approaching mid/upper trough. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates and
increasing deep layer shear could support some large hail as we move
into the predawn hours on Tuesday but confidence in the details
remains fairly low at this time. Some shower activity could linger
into Tuesday night and Wednesday depending on the exact track of the
mid/upper trough. With limited insolation and precipitation,
temperatures will remain below climate normals Tue-Wed with most
areas seeing highs in the low 70s.
Thu-Sat...The mid/upper trough is progged to translate eastward late
in the week with dry and mild conditions returning to the area.
Highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s as the low level
airmass begins to dry out.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and storms continue drifting eastward across
central Kansas this morning. Pockets of heavy rain and MVFR cigs
can be expected with some erratic winds in and near storms. The
best window for showers and storms in the Wichita area may be
between 14-18Z while our central Kansas TAF sites should see
improvement as the focus shifts east by late morning or early
afternoon. VCTS was included in southeast KS by around 17Z and
lingering through the day. As we head into the overnight hours,
low cigs with IFR and possibly LIFR may impact parts of central
and south central KS and area TAFs were trended in that
direction.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion