Castle Rock Lake Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

895
FXUS63 KARX 111857
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
155 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly at/above normal temps through next week
- Rain chances return Sunday night, lingering into early Monday
morning. Periodic rain chances then for the latter half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Overall, the GEFS and EPS favor more of a progressive upper level
flow moving through the new week. Periodic rain chances result with
temps mostly at/above normal.
The upper level ridging bringing the pleasant conditions of today
gets a push east Sunday as bits of upper level energy drive into the
ridge`s westward side. A shortwave trough remains on track to spin
across the plains and lift northeast over far northern reaches of
the region Sunday night. An associated cold front will precede the
shortwave and will be the main weather impetus for rain chances late
Sunday into Monday locally.
Low amplitude ridging moves in post the shortwave with the ridge
gradually increasing in amplitude and centering across the upper
mississippi river valley by Thu. The EPS and GEFS then move a
shortwave trough across the plains and into southern Canada for the
end of the new work week. The models had been at odds with how to
handle that trough and GEFS now more in line with the EPS. Again -
progressive flow - so as that trough exits another could be right on
its heels, dropping in for the weekend. A bit more chaotic at this
time frame so predictability/confidence lower on definitive
outcomes.
> RAIN CHANCES: push of milder/more moist air northward on Sunday,
ahead of the approaching cold front. PWs climbing to around 1 1/2" -
NAEFS PW anomalies from +2 to +3. The change in airmass doesn`t do
much for the instability, however, with meso/medium range guidance
indicating little/if any CAPE. In addition, the low level warming
results in stout capping - preventing any sfc based convection. With
the shortwave lifting north of the local forecast area, the bulk of
the lift will be associated with the front - timing of which slides
it through Sunday night. Expect scattered/areas of showers to spark
along/ahead of the front - the bulk exiting east by 12-15z Monday.
THunder not expected. As for QPF amounts, despite the favorable
atmosphere, the lift doesn`t support widespread moderate/heavy rain.
CAMS very cellular in nature, with a lot of short lived showers. LREF
probabilities for more than 1/4" currently sit at 30% along/north of
I-90 with about a 5% shot to reach 1/2".
After Monday there will be periodic shots for rain moving through
the rest of the week with bits of upper level energy trying to
undercut/move across the shortwave ridging. Potentially a more
organized system via stronger shortwave by the weekend, but again,
positioning/timing questionable.
> TEMPERATURES: a breezy (gusts 30 to 35 mph) southerly push Sunday
will help edge high temps above 70s for many. Cools down a bit for
the start of the new week, post the cold front, with Tue/Wed
favoring highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Cooler yeah, but right
around the early Oct normals. The amplifying ridge then promises more
mild air for the send half of the week with highs again looking to
warm 70+ for some.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
CIGS: increasing high/mid level clouds through the night/Sunday.
Deck will continue to lower moving into Sunday night and could
experience a few hour period of MVFR along/ahead of a sfc cold
front.
WX/vsby: shower chances on the increase moving through the day
Sunday, becoming likely for Sunday night. Spatially the meso models
favor cellular development, so related impacts more likely to be
relatively short duration, but those chances will persist through
the overnight. No thunder expected.
WINDS: tighten pressure gradient will result in an increased/gusty
southerly flow starting overnight, persisting into Sunday evening.
Gusts flirting with 30 kts at KRST Sunday.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION.....Rieck

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion