Cayucos-Morro Bay District Cemetery, California Weather Forecast Discussion

699
FXUS66 KLOX 211547
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
847 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...21/831 AM.
Monsoonal moisture will begin to move north again today. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms over the coastal waters near
Catalina Island this morning and in the mountains this afternoon.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms will expand to all areas
Monday night into Tuesday when the monsoon reaches its peak. This
may continue into Wednesday before the monsoon weakens.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...21/846 AM.
***UPDATE***
A narrow line of convection has developed along the northern
periphery of a band of moisture coming up from south of the
border. The line is currently headed straight for Catalina Island
and should arrive around 10am give or take. The CAMs are
indicating a significant weakening in the line as it approaches
the mainland between LAX and Long Beach and this is common for
morning convective over the coastal waters to weaken by afternoon
so for now the forecast for southern LA County is just for some
virga or light showers.
The rest of the forecast is on track. There is a slight chance of
a shower or storm over the LA/Ventura Mountains this afternoon,
otherwise little change in temperatures from yesterday which were
more or less near normal for this time of year.
***From Previous Discussion***
There will be a little break in the convective chances on Monday
as today`s moisture exits the area and Tuesday`s remains too far
offshore. There is a small chance of an isolated shower or TSTM
over the northern VTA county mtns in the afternoon. Otherwise the
day will start off with some coastal low clouds in the morning but
will otherwise be sunny. Max temps will cool some as hgts fall
from an approaching low.
There is good mdl agreement that an upper low will slide southward
and end up to the SW of Pt Conception. The Central Coast will be
under increase difluent flow and just enough moisture advection to
create a slight chc of nocturnal TSTMs. The low will also usher
in enough clouds to make it a mostly cloudy night.
The upper low will bring enough clouds to the area Tuesday to make
it a mostly cloudy one. And while not as moist as last week`s
system it will still raise PWs to about 1.25 inches. There is no
real focus to the system so there will be just moisture and weak
instability. This equates to a 20 to 30 percent chc of a shower or
TSTM just about anywhere across the area. At this time it does not
look like there is that much of chance for high rainfall totals or
rates. All of the cloud cover should lower max temps by 2 or 3
degrees.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...21/306 AM.
Mdls are in decent agreement that the upper low will swing to the
NE and will approach Pt Conception. Tuesday night and Wednesday
look like they will have the best chc of rain as the best
moisture, lift and instability move over the area. Still there is
not that much moisture to work with so the threat of heavy rain is
limited. The clouds and lower hgts will bring 2 to 4 degrees of
cooling to the area.
The upper low is fcst to wonder around Srn CA, western AZ and nrn
Mexico through the rest of the period. At this point it does not
look like it will have much effect on the weather. There will be a
slight chc of an isolated mtn TSTM on Thursday afternoon. Max
temps will not change much and will remain blo normal.
&&
.AVIATION...21/1119Z.
At 0656Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 1700 feet with a temperature of 22 C.
High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, & KWJF.
Overall, low to moderate confidence for remaining 12Z TAFs.
Rapid changes in CIG/VSBY restrictions will likely be common for
coastal sites especially south of Point Conception through 18Z
Sun (excluding KSBA). Low confidence thereafter for KOXR, KCMA,
KSMO, & KLAX. - CIGs could linger longer than forecasted.
KLAX...Moderate confidence through 18Z Sunday, then low confidence
thereafter. Timing of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours
of current forecasts. CIGs may return sooner than forecasted after
18Z Sunday. No significant easterly wind component is expected.
KBUR...Good confidence in 12Z TAF.
&&
.MARINE...20/1137 PM.
For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) wind gusts are expected (60%
chance) through Sunday afternoon for the waters S and W of the
Channel Islands. Another round of SCA level wind gusts will be
possible at times (50% chance) Tuesday afternoon and evening for
the southern waters. Also, there is a 60% chance of low-end SCA
level wind gusts across the far northern portion of PZZ670 Sunday
afternoon & evening. Otherwise, conditions are generally expected
to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.
For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Conds are largely expected to be
below SCA levels through Thursday night, However, there is a
30% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times on Sunday through
Tuesday & on Thursday during the afternoon and evening hours.
For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence
in current forecast. There is a 40-50% chance of SCA conds across
the western Santa Barbara Channel each afternoon & evening Tuesday
through Thursday. Otherwise, winds and seas should generally remain
below SCA levels through Thursday night.
A closed upper level low will draw tropical moisture from the
south over the coastal waters early next week. Rain chances could
begin over far southern portions of PZZ655/676 Sunday afternoon,
but as of now coverage looks to be limited. For Monday & Tuesday,
widespread showers with the potential for thunderstorms may affect the
coastal  waters, with the highest impacts likely south of Point
Conception.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT today for zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Ciliberti/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion