Cecil, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

242
FXUS64 KTSA 201449
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
949 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Above average temperatures through the weekend and into early
   next week before a cool-down to near or below seasonal average by
   midweek.
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend
   and much of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Morning MCS is about to exit the region to the east, with some
trailing isolated to scattered convection atop the outflow across
NE OK. Southward moving outflow is expected to become a focus this
afternoon for isolated to widely scattered storms. The latest data
suggests deep layer shear will be on the low side and will limit
the overall potential. The unstable airmass south/west of the
outflow will be the main driver for severe potential. Thus,
expect storms to be pulse in nature and capable of producing
localized damaging downbursts and perhaps some hail. With the
outflow arcing back to the northwest this afternoon, the latest
CAM guidance suggests this is more likely to occur from central
into NE OK this afternoon.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday and Saturday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A cluster of storms, currently ongoing across south/southwest KS
will likely be ongoing across northeast OK and far northwest AR by
sunrise this morning. Isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible in this cluster of storms this morning, with damaging wind
gusts being the primary threat and isolated large hail being a
secondary threat. Additionally, consensus in CAM guidance indicate
the storms may train and produce pockets of heavy rainfall, with
pockets of 2 to 3+ inches possible, which may lead to flooding and
isolated flash flooding. These storms are expected to become
somewhat less organized, but should remain intact with a flooding
threat through the late morning and perhaps the early afternoon
hours across far northeast OK and far northwest AR as modest to
strong warm air advection fuels the storms. Resultant outflow
boundaries from the morning storms may generate additional showers
and thunderstorms by early-mid afternoon, as well.
A secondary mid-level shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies by
midday, with the trough axis positioned just west of the forecast
area by mid-late afternoon. While cloud cover will remain fairly
thick through the morning and into the afternoon over far northeast
OK and far northwest AR, much less cloud cover is expected southwest
of a line between Tulsa and Fort Smith by midday. This will allow
strong daytime heating (lower-90s) and destabilization ahead of the
approaching shortwave trough, above a very moist airmass, and will
lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop by mid-
afternoon. A few storms may develop in the forecast area in eastern
OK, but majority of the storms will move into the CWA from
central/south-central OK. One limiting factor with regards to the
severe potential will be relatively weak deep bulk shear (20-25
knots), with weak mid-level winds. However, pockets of stronger bulk
shear may cause a few strong to marginally severe storms. And once
again, heavy rainfall with stronger and training storms may lead to
nuisance flooding and isolated flash flooding in spots. Lastly, CAMs
and global models continue to hint at nighttime cluster of
storms/MCS development near the OK/KS and MO/AR borders during the
evening and overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning,
which may also carry a limited severe and flooding risk.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Widespread storm chances will persist Sunday into Monday as a mid-
level trough axis gradually moves across the area and a more zonal
flow regime transpires aloft behind it. There is still numerous
discrepancies in forecast models with regards to the synoptic
pattern next week, especially by mid-late week. A series of
shortwave troughs/perturbations caught in the zonal flow will
maintain moderate-high (40-80%) precipitation chances Monday and
Tuesday before its parent upper-level trough/low develops over the
Rockies and moves across the Central Plains by midweek. Models
continue to suggest a surface cold front moving through the forecast
area sometime Tuesday evening/night into Wednesday morning, with
lots of uncertainty at this time with exact timing. Rain chances are
expected to slowly decrease by the tail-end of the workweek as the
mid/upper-level low shifts east of the area, though weather
conditions will be highly be dependent on exact track and position
of the upper-level low. Overall, the long-term period, especially
Wednesday-Friday, is still highly uncertain at this time. However,
confidence is high enough to state that the pattern is trending to
be wetter and much cooler than this past week has been. Better
details to come in later forecast updates.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over NE OK will progress
eastward through the morning affecting NE OK sites for another
hour or two and NW AR sites through the morning hours. Reduced
VSBY, gusty winds and lighting will be the main impacts, though
some brief MVFR cigs will be possible during the heaviest storms.
A lull in storm activity is expected through mid afternoon before
additional scattered thunderstorms development becomes possible
first across SE OK by mid afternoon and then into NE OK and NW AR
sites after 00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
winds generally around 5 to 10 knots out of the south outside of
any storm impacts.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  86  69 /  40  40  50  60
FSM   91  69  90  70 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   92  68  88  70 /  20  20  50  50
BVO   86  64  84  65 /  70  50  60  60
FYV   85  64  86  65 /  70  40  40  50
BYV   79  64  85  65 /  70  60  50  50
MKO   90  67  87  68 /  30  30  50  50
MIO   82  64  84  65 /  80  60  60  60
F10   92  66  87  67 /  20  30  50  50
HHW   91  67  89  69 /   0  10  30  30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion