Cedar, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS63 KGID 051021
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
521 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- To sum up the 7-day as briefly as possible: We get three days
  of early-fall (and mainly dry) weather through the weekend,
  followed by a return to warmer/more humid conditions next
  week...certainly more typical of late summer.
- In tandem with the return of increasing heat/humidity next
  week will also come a return to intermittent thunderstorm
  chances. Right now, our overall-highest chances (albeit only
  20-40% at this time) are focused Monday evening-night.
  Although still too far out in time for SPC to "outlook" us for
  severe potential, various model data suggests this is
  probably our next best chance for at least low-end severe.
- Getting back to the shorter-term, the only rain chances until
  Monday are right away today, as mainly the southern half of
  our forecast area (CWA) will see continued mainly light
  showers/sprinkles primarily this morning, but possibly
  continuing into this afternoon mainly in our KS counties.
- In terms of temperature trends, today-tonight are the coolest
  readings in our 7-day (most places highs 60s/lows 40s...maybe
  even upper 30s far north). Sat-Sun then work back up into the
  low-mid 70s for highs, before more widespread highs in the
  80s/lows in the 60s return especially by Tues-Thurs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, CHANGES, UNCERTAINTIES:
- Those watching closely will note no truly significant changes
  versus forecasts of 12-24 hours ago. On the more minor level,
  temps for Sat-Sun (although still solidly below average) have
  crept up a few degrees, as low-mid 70s are looking more likely
  (as opposed to upper 60s).
- Touching on smoke concerns, fortunately there is very little
  short-term concern for surface-level smoke (it continues to
  scour out from north-to-south). As for smoke aloft, it will
  also gradually diminish from north-to-south today, and while
  at least modest amounts will linger over especially our far
  south-southwest CWA this weekend, concentrations should not be
  as impressively-abundant as yesterday (this forecaster was
  annoyed to average roughly 3-5 degrees too warm with the high
  temperature forecast for yesterday...with most of this error
  clearly tied to the expansive smoke plume filtering out the
  sun).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 430 AM:
Briefly touching back on at least limited concerns for possible
spotty severe storms overnight in our southern CWA as outlined
here 24 hours ago, there was indeed a quick burst of
strong/severe storms within our greater region earlier in the
night, but fortunately they focused a few counties southwest of
our CWA (in west-central KS)...thanks to the main axis of
elevated instability slipping south of our area (with that
potential threat now over we should be free of any truly
hazardous weather concerns until at least Monday).
As of this writing, a broad batch of steadier rain showers is
barely brushing our extreme southern KS zones (mainly focused
just south along/south of I-70), while farther north into our
Nebraska counties, a fairly narrow, west-northwest to east-
southeast oriented band of light rain showers/sprinkles
continues to stream overhead (just enough to get the ground a
little wet here at our WFO).
In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite and short term model data clearly depict an
expansive/deep trough/low pressure system centered north of the
Great Lakes, with various lobes of energy/jet streaks rotating
around down into our region (the aforementioned band of
light/high-based showers streaming through the heart of our area
likely mainly tied to an upper jet streak). Meanwhile at the
surface, the cold front indeed gradually passed southward
through our entire CWA during the evening-early overnight
(albeit if anything with slightly weaker winds than
expected)...with its leading edge already down near the KS/OK
border. In its wake, fairly light-but-steady north-northwest
breezes are in place (mainly 4-9 MPH). Under extensive mid-high
clouds (although the northern fringes of our CWA are very close
to a sharp clearing line), low temps this morning are on track
to bottom out mainly mid-50s, but ranging from upper 40s far
north, to upper 50s far south.
- TODAY:
The bottom line is that the day will start with the
aforementioned extensive clouds and mainly pesky/light showers
or sprinkles mainly within counties along/south of Interstate 80
(although our southern-most KS counties could still see some
steadier light measurable rain. For the majority of affected
areas, any rain chances should end by this afternoon, but with
this system looking to depart a bit slower than it appeared 24
hours ago, was plenty generous lingering at least a basic
"slight chance of sprinkles" into the afternoon within much of
our southern half. As the limited rain chances gradually end
from north-to-south, the extensive cloud cover (and the
extensive smoke plume aloft) will also gradually diminish from
north-to- south today. The net result will be the day as a whole
averaging partly (maybe mostly) sunny north,.although a batch
of "fair weather" stratocumulus could also develop into
especially our far north-northeast counties this afternoon).
Meanwhile, it will certainly average mostly cloudy south. The
exact degree/efficiency of clearing lends some a bit of
uncertainty to the temperature forecast, but ended up making
minimal change with most places aimed mid- upper 60s. Winds will
become a touch breezy today out of the northwest mainly in our
northeast half (sustained 10-15 MPH/gusts as high as 20-25), but
overall- lighter in our southwest half.
- TONIGHT:
Just how chilly will it get? There is high confidence that any
lingering sprinkles will vacate even our far south by 7 PM,
paving the way for what is almost certainly a guaranteed dry
night. Although there are hints in some models of a few smaller-
scale patches of clouds possibly passing through, overall it
should be a clear/mostly clear night. At the surface, very light
and mainly westerly/northerly breezes will prevail. The combo of
mostly clear skies/light winds/dry air almost certainly means
the vast majority of our CWA is in for its chilliest night since
at least late-May. If anything, aimed toward the chillier end of
model guidance, calling for mainly low 40s north half and
mid-40s south half. However, especially a few of our far
northern counties (and typicall-colder stations such as Ord)
could easily dip into the upper 30s briefly. Fortunately, even
there we look to be at least a couple of degrees "safe" from an
early-season frost threat.
- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Although some models hint at a bit more cloud cover than the
outright sunny/mostly sunny forecast in our official forecast,
overall this looks like a pretty spectacular day more typical of
early-October. Winds will be light (no more than 5-10 MPH) from
somewhat varying directions (generally more southerly in our
south and more northerly in our north). High temps were nudged
up slightly...with most of the CWA low 70s but mid 70s more
common especially near/south of the KS border. Turning to
Saturday night, with the slightly warmer airmass and very
slightly stronger easterly breezes (albeit still quite light),
ti doesn`t look to be quite as chilly as tonight. In fact, lows
have trended up somewhat, now ranging from low 40s far north, to
mid-upper 40s central and even low-mid 50s into KS.
- SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT:
ALthough still a bit cooler-than-average, a slight increase in
south-southeast winds signals the initial stages of our warm-up
as broad upper level ridging over the western U.S. starts to
edge eastward. Highs have trended up a few degrees, with most
areas now aimed 73-77. The bigger change will be overnight lows,
which will only bottom out a few degrees either side of 60 as
dewpoints/humidity start to return as well. Precip-wise, while
we remain fairly confident in a dry daytime, there are hints
that especially the late night could feature some
limited/spotty thunderstorm chances (something to monitor).
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
In short, continued warming as upper ridging continues to edge
in overhead from the west and mainly southerly breezes prevail
(highs back into at least low-mid 80s by Tuesday). As touched on
above, there is probably at least some low-end potential for a
strong/severe storm threat especially Monday evening (as
supported by latest ECMWF), as a low-amplitude shortwave trough
drops through our region out of the northwest around the top of
the ridge.
- WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
At least temporarily, our high temperature forecast has trended
down slightly with more in the way of low-mid 80s than mid-upper
80s, but this could easily trend back up as there is plenty of
usual inherent uncertainty in the details that far out. There is
also plenty of uncertainty in continued/intermittent
thunderstorm chances, with the ECMWF overall-drier than the GFS
at this time, largely due to it hanging onto more prominent
ridging aloft (albeit with still some hints of thunderstorm
potential).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
High confidence VFR ceiling/visibility through the period,
although especially the first 15 hours will feature abundant
mid-level clouds (mainly based at/above 10K ft.). There could
also be a few/scattered lower-VFR clouds (based mainly 5-7K ft)
around during the afternoon-evening, but overall skies should be
on a clearing trend.
Precipitation-wise, primarily 08-14Z there could be intermittent
light rainfall as a band of light showers sets up over the
general area in a west-northwest to east-southeast orientation.
This should be a rather minor precipitation "event", but have
maintained a PROB30 group to acknowledge it.
Winds will not be a notable issue, with the overall-strongest
speeds focused during the day 15-22Z...out of the northwest
commonly sustained 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT. Both before and after
these slightly breezier conditions, sustained speeds will
largely prevail under 10KT...mainly out of the northwest early
this morning, and then downright light/variable direction Friday
evening.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion