Centenary, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

931
FXUS62 KILM 011347
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
947 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will push farther offshore away
from the Carolinas during the remainder of this week. After
some lingering clouds and patchy drizzle this morning, dry
conditions are slated for the rest of this week as strong
Canadian high pressure ridges in from the north. Treacherous
marine and ocean conditions will persist through the remainder
of the work week with elevated waves pounding the coastline.
&&
.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to cancel the High Surf Advisory over SC
beaches where surf heights should stay in the 3-5 ft range
today and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Our tropical systems will move further out to sea through
the day with high pressure taking over tonight as it ridges in
from the north. Gusty NE winds will again kick up during the
afternoon gusting 25-30 mph with mostly sunny conditions
letting us warm up to near 80. Tonight we`ll really receive
that cooler air as lows drop into the 50s, but the NE winds
should keep away any radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5H trof to drop further south of the FA Thu with upper ridging
or closed upper high to dominate the FA. This will allow strong
sfc high pressure to ridge in from the northeast states into
Fri, with the high`s center dropping to the Mid-Atlantic region
Fri night. Dry and cooler air initially will slowly moderate to
at or slightly above normal by late Fri. Maxes generally in the
mid 70s Thu and upper 70s Fri...with lows near normal Thu night
to slightly above normal Fri night. A tightened sfc pg will
reside across and south of the FA thru the period resulting with
breezy NE-ENE winds during the day, lower but staying active at
night which should keep fog development to a minimum if any at
all. One fly in the ointment is an inverted sfc trof progged to
move from ENE to WSW over the local waters and onshore, crossing
portions of the FA late Fri into Fri night which could yield
isolated showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
During this period, upper ridge axis and/or the closed upper
high to track across and park just east of the FA, over the
adjacent Atl Waters. This will result in the center of the sfc
high sliding offshore from the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Sfc pg to
remain tightened, especially the further south one goes with
winds slightly veering to an E-ESE onshore trajectory. Looking
at marine air mass influence continuing the moderation in
temps. Looking at daytime highs eclipsing 80 degrees each day.
Nighttime lows generally in the 60s to near 70 at the coast
given onshore flow across mid-upper 70s SSTs. Moisture profiles
will increase as a result of this onshore flow within the low
and mid levels. Generally increasing PWs thru this period
reflect the moisture increase. In addition, could observe
inverted sfc trofs occasionally moving onshore, giving rise to
scattered shower threats. Timing these this far out in time
somewhat difficult but enough to mention here.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Some drizzle this morning isn`t yielding any restrictions
based on observations so have not included in TAFs. Winds
should start gusting fairly quickly after sunrise so have not
included wind shear with the mixing out of the LLJ but it is
possible that briefly at the start of the TAF period ~40 kt
winds out of the NNE could be at 2000 ft before gusts catch up.
Into the afternoon NE winds will gust near 25-30 kt before
dropping off after sunset where a NE breeze will linger. Have
accounted for some mid-level CU in the afternoon/evening as
well.
Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR. May have some patchy fog over
the weekend with rain chances returning at the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions due to
gusty NE winds +25 kt. As our tropical systems pull away and
high pressure ridges in tonight we could see a NE surge of
stronger winds but still SCA. Seas will remain relatively steady
at ~4-6 ft near the coast and ~6-8 ft 20 nm out, particularly
off the SE NC coast as we remain impacted by tropical swells.
Thursday through Sunday...SCA conditions will continue into Sat
morning. Sfc pg to remain tightened thru the extended
period...slightly tighter across the ILM SC Waters when
compared to the ILM NC Waters. Initially looking at NE-ENE
winds at 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt early in the period.
Winds this weekend will slightly veer to the E-ESE at the same
speeds with the infrequent 25 kt wind gusts south of Little
River Inlet. Seas at their peak during the beginning of this
period, followed by a slow subsiding trend. Seas initially will
be a mix of slowly subsiding Humberto and Imelda swell combined
with a short period and rather large wind driven wave system
given the fetch. There will be a scattered shower threat in the
vicinity of these inverted sfc trof passages that track
eventually track onshore.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
all beaches today, with this high rip risk likely to continue
for east-facing beaches through the end of the week. Humberto
and Imelda swell will intertwine along with the addition of
large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as
synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north.
The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of
the work week while the 2 tropical cyclone distinctive swell
trains slowly subside. The end result will be the production of
high surf (breaking wave heights up to 6 ft) through Thursday
for the beaches north of Cape Fear.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     NCZ106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion